Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:48:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4c04…7dca
crypto · 1013 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$573 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$458 · open +$115
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,529
Realized+$458
Unrealized+$115
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses988 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1008 / 1013
History coverage2d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day1169.1
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 5 History 1008 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$120
7 days+$458
14 days+$458
30 days+$458
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? No 91¢ 98¢ $920 $995 +$75 (+8%)
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) United States 93¢ 100¢ $475 $508 +$33 (+7%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
United States leading at halftime? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Over 0¢ 66¢ $0 $7 +$7 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $193 +$7 +4%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $97 +$3 +3%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $30 −$25 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $97 −$97 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $297 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $296 +$4 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $271 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $197 +$3 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $294 +$6 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $99 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $182 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $395 +$5 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $97 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $245 +$3 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $98 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 96% −$94
sports 2% +$279
other 2% +$388
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 0m
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 0m
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) SELL United States 100¢ $10 0m
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 3m
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 3m
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 3m
Paraguay leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $10 3m
United States vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? SELL No 100¢ $10 3m
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 3m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 4m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $95 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 5m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 99¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $97 9m
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 10m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $97 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 13m
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 99¢ $10 15m
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 15m
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY No 99¢ $4 15m
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY No 99¢ $6 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 22m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1008 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 1% -9.2%
≤30d 1008 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 1% -9.2%
≤90d 1008 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 1% -9.2%
all 1008 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1169.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 1% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 1% -17.9%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,529.27 · official $1,460.43 · 3500 history records