Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c04…3d8b crypto 1404 markets active 6d ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (217 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$305 (-5%) realized −$305 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate38%708W / 1150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day216.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$391
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (217 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 583 -75.3% -77.7% 12% 8% -86.2%
≤30d 1858 -26.4% -33.4% 38% 24% -40.6%
≤90d 1858 -26.4% -33.4% 38% 24% -40.6%
all 1858 -26.4% -33.4% 38% 24% -40.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover216.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.4% 24% -40.6%
10% ← realistic here -39.8% 13% -46.3%
15% -45.6% 7% -51.5%
20% -50.9% 3% -56.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$305
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses708 / 1150
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1858 / 1404
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day216.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1858 Trades
no open positions (487 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +294%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +223%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +267%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +525%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +37%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 15? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 1? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 15? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 23? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 1? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Ap Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 7? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on May 6? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 15 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 6? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Ma Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ap Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 16? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or higher on May 4? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 12? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $4 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $4 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.84 · official $50.15 · 3500 history records