Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:20:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4C 0x4c03…f8be sports 475 markets active 0h ago coverage 373d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$587 (-1%) realized −$728 · open +$141
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%245W / 224L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$439est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,337
7 days+$944
14 days+$1,005
30 days+$461
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$745
other 2% +$102
crypto 1% +$403
world 0% −$315
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +20.4% +8.9% 59% 59% +5.0%
≤30d 59 +5.9% -4.2% 53% 53% -6.4%
≤90d 134 -3.7% -12.9% 50% 50% -12.3%
all 469 +3.6% -6.3% 52% 52% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 52% -10.1%
10% -15.3% 52% -18.7%
15% -23.4% 52% -26.6%
20% -30.9% 52% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$185 vs −$207 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

373d coverage
Net worth$1,280
Realized−$728
Unrealized+$141
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses245 / 224
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$439
Open positions5
Markets (closed)469 / 475
History coverage373d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 469 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 63¢ 82¢ $255 $334 +$79 (+31%)
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 Under 57¢ 62¢ $300 $326 +$26 (+9%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners Under 52¢ 52¢ $228 $226 −$2 (-1%)
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score No 57¢ 56¢ $205 $203 −$2 (-1%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Under 45¢ 57¢ $150 $190 +$40 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 213 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $245 +$150 +61%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 27 $176 +$150 +85%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $225 +$150 +67%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $227 +$152 +67%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $534 +$305 +57%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $225 −$225 -100%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $58 −$57 -99%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $100 +$400 +400%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $288 +$203 +70%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $245 +$203 +83%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $100 +$257 +257%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $177 −$174 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $128 +$101 +79%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $326 −$326 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $208 +$152 +73%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $302 +$204 +67%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $213 −$210 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $304 −$300 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $244 −$244 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $314 −$310 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 22 $227 +$203 +90%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $300 +$162 +54%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $138 +$101 +73%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $300 +$203 +67%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $265 +$200 +75%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 19 $245 +$203 +83%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $226 −$226 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $276 +$200 +72%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $204 +$284 +140%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $210 +$203 +97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $208 −$208 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $208 +$200 +96%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $100 +$317 +317%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $226 −$226 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $288 −$288 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $200 +$208 +104%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $313 −$313 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $276 +$200 +72%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $360 +$250 +70%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $255 +$200 +79%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $276 −$276 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $304 +$273 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $255 27m
Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $141 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $2 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $6 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 52¢ $11 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 52¢ $220 1h
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $300 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a dra BUY 43¢ $99 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $208 13h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 62¢ $216 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 62¢ $28 18h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $225 21h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 54¢ $176 23h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $19 23h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $30 23h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $7 23h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $68 23h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $14 23h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $13 23h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $77 23h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $225 24h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 74¢ $298 26h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1 26h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $236 26h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $6 26h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $10 26h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $6 26h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $34 26h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $288 44h
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,279.54 · official $1,376.69 · 1579 history records