Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:34:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c02…16f3 other 65 markets active 13h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$66 (-2%) realized −$47 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%14W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$45
14 days+$45
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% +$241
world 29% −$324
other 16% −$138
economics 4% +$68
crypto 2% −$55
sports 2% +$50
tech 1% +$47
culture 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +45.5% +31.6% 38% 25% +70.9%
≤30d 8 +45.5% +31.6% 38% 25% +70.9%
≤90d 10 +16.4% +5.3% 30% 20% -75.4%
all 45 +2.4% -7.3% 31% 29% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 29% -12.8%
10% -16.2% 27% -21.1%
15% -24.3% 18% -28.7%
20% -31.7% 18% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$20 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses14 / 31
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions20
Markets (closed)45 / 65
History coverage468d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 14¢ 23¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+68%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$61 +596%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jan 21 $500 −$77 -15%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 21 $1,000 +$273 +27%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jul 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will anyone be charged as a result of Epstein file release? Jul 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? May 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump cut military spending? May 12 $10 −$10 -100%
New Pope in 2025? May 12 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 13 $20 −$14 -69%
SpaceX Starship fully reusable in 2025? Apr 13 $10 +$3 +32%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Apr 13 $20 −$6 -32%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 13 $5 +$11 +220%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? Apr 13 $10 +$11 +111%
US recession in 2025? Apr 13 $120 +$68 +57%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? Apr 01 $5 +$10 +194%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
SpaceX rescues stranded astronauts before April? Mar 19 $5 +$1 +28%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before April? Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Crypto" 5+ times during Crypto Summit on Friday Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy? Mar 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say 'mandate' 5+ times times during the 2025 State of the U Mar 05 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
OpenAI acquired in 2025? Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say 'ceasefire' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 05 $5 +$15 +300%
Will Trump say 'Putin' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say 'Russia' 3+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say 'tariff' 5+ times times during the 2025 State of the Un Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say 'mineral' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025? Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 3? Mar 04 $5 +$57 +1147%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 12h
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 100¢ $160 12h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 35h
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 75¢ $121 39h
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY Yes 29¢ $21 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 45h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 45h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 45h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 45h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 45h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 45h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 45h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 45h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 45h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 45h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 45h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 45h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 46h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 46h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 46h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 46h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 46h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 46h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.09 · official $187.09 (match) · 117 history records