Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:24:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c00…6db8 crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day48.0pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$135
world 3% +$16
other 2% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -21.1% -28.6% 54% 46% -27.0%
≤30d 13 -21.1% -28.6% 54% 46% -27.0%
≤90d 13 -21.1% -28.6% 54% 46% -27.0%
all 13 -21.1% -28.6% 54% 46% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.6% 46% -27.0%
10% ← realistic here -35.4% 23% -33.9%
15% -41.6% 15% -40.3%
20% -47.4% 15% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$37 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)13 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day48.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Yes 11¢ 24¢ $15 $32 +$17 (+114%)
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $52 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $103 −$38 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $244 +$20 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$22 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$21 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $19 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $6 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $15 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $118 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $34 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.44 · official $65.92 (match) · 52 history records