Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:19:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

4C 0x4c00…e2ce other 3 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$92 (-25%) realized −$124 · open +$32

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$123per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 62d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-4.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+96.8%	+78.1%	100%	100%	+78.1%
≤30d	1	+96.8%	+78.1%	100%	100%	+78.1%
≤90d	2	+6.1%	-4.0%	50%	50%	-63.0%
all	2	+6.1%	-4.0%	50%	50%	-63.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.0%	50%	-63.0%
10%	-13.2%	50%	-66.5%
15%	-21.6%	50%	-69.7%
20%	-29.3%	50%	-72.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -59% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +6% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$19 vs −$99 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.19 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage

Net worth$265

Realized−$124

Unrealized+$32

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage62d

Avg bet$123

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	19¢	$233	$265	+$32 (+14%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$19	+$19	+97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?	Apr 15	$117	−$99	-85%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$38	10m
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	50¢	$19	1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$233	52d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?	SELL Yes	3¢	$18	62d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?	BUY Yes	19¢	$117	62d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $265.40 · official $265.40 (match) · 58 history records