Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:03:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4bff…fc26
sports · 123 markets active 12h ago
0.0score
−$4,153,666 -51%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,164,883 · open +$11,217
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$115,293
Realized−$4,164,883
Unrealized+$11,217
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses55 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$119,883
Open positions2
Markets (closed)159 / 123
History coverage23d
Avg bet$66,716
Trades / day148.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 2 History 159 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,381,965
7 days−$3,298,776
14 days−$3,461,356
30 days−$4,164,883
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 51¢ 54¢ $89,249 $93,624 +$4,375 (+5%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Under 48¢ 70¢ $14,826 $21,668 +$6,842 (+46%)
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Under 41¢ 0¢ $163,918 $0 −$163,918 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $24,431 $0 −$24,431 (-100%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Under 38¢ 0¢ $112,056 $0 −$112,056 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Under 49¢ 0¢ $138,241 $0 −$138,241 (-100%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Over 46¢ 0¢ $85,556 $0 −$85,556 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Under 41¢ 0¢ $8,551 $0 −$8,551 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Canadiens 35¢ 0¢ $99,742 $0 −$99,742 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Under 48¢ 0¢ $166,963 $0 −$166,963 (-100%)
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $1,223 $0 −$1,223 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Over 56¢ 0¢ $20,434 $0 −$20,434 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 Over 53¢ 0¢ $40,137 $0 −$40,137 (-100%)
Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire Connecticut Sun 32¢ 0¢ $113,398 $0 −$113,398 (-100%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 38¢ 0¢ $33,784 $0 −$33,784 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $8,713 $0 −$8,713 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Under 56¢ 0¢ $208,064 $0 −$208,064 (-100%)
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) Tatsuro Taira 60¢ 0¢ $317,349 $0 −$317,349 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Canadiens 41¢ 0¢ $166,051 $0 −$166,051 (-100%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 53¢ 0¢ $106,791 $0 −$106,791 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Under 47¢ 0¢ $14,061 $0 −$14,061 (-100%)
Washington Mystics vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 171.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Under 42¢ 0¢ $42,218 $0 −$42,218 (-100%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Under 48¢ 0¢ $47,843 $0 −$47,843 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $25,000 $0 −$25,000 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $138,241 −$138,241 -100%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $317,349 −$317,349 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 12 $106,791 −$106,791 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $14,061 −$14,061 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 171.5 Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $3,241 −$3,241 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Portland Fire Jun 12 $357 −$357 -100%
Avalanche vs. Wild Jun 12 $24,980 −$24,980 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $1,284 −$1,284 -100%
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $18,406 −$18,406 -100%
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 12 $508,573 −$508,573 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $38,895 −$38,895 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 12 $123,272 −$123,272 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $11,470 −$11,470 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $24,000 −$24,000 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $27,118 −$27,118 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Jun 12 $12,942 −$12,942 -100%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $96,000 −$96,000 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $17,850 −$17,850 -100%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) Jun 12 $11,999 −$11,999 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers Jun 12 $290,398 −$290,398 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $6,562 −$6,562 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $376,095 −$376,095 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $58,304 −$58,304 -100%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $4,683 −$4,683 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C Jun 12 $447,012 −$447,012 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 12 $128,000 −$128,000 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 Jun 12 $2,453 −$2,453 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $80,892 −$80,892 -100%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $11,478 −$11,478 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 12 $60,082 −$60,082 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 12 $96,000 −$96,000 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $93,435 −$93,435 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 12 $282,223 −$282,223 -100%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $4,114 −$4,114 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli Jun 12 $384,284 −$384,284 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $99,370 −$99,370 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $68,725 −$68,725 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $36,997 +$62,272 +168%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $48,749 +$21,251 +44%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5 Jun 12 $1,564 −$1,540 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5 Jun 12 $9,198 −$9,051 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $198,441 +$228,515 +115%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 11 $9,780 +$12,581 +129%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $87,245 +$89,196 +102%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $1,883 +$2,061 +109%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $51,240 +$49,725 +97%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $77,253 +$72,031 +93%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $85,263 +$106,963 +126%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $25,375 −$25,000 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% −$229,345
other 2% +$66,647
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,564 12h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5 BUY Over 46¢ $9,198 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $670 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $51 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $1 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $51 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $10 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $119 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $302 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $10 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $1 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $2 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $21 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $102 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $21 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $1 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $6 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $520 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $8 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $2 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $51 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $4 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $1 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $1 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $3 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $77 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $1 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $1,132 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $1,132 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $7,547 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -35.1% -41.3% 32% 32% -47.9%
≤30d 159 -20.9% -28.4% 35% 35% -40.8%
≤90d 159 -20.9% -28.4% 35% 35% -40.8%
all 159 -20.9% -28.4% 35% 35% -40.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover148.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.4% 35% -40.8%
10% -35.3% 35% -46.5%
15% ← realistic here -41.5% 34% -51.7%
20% -47.3% 32% -56.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115,292.90 · official $115,292.90 (match) · 3500 history records