Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:06:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4B 0x4bf9…85d4 sports 1111 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$98 (+0%) realized +$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%1104W / 4L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day33.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$15
14 days+$30
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$85
other 13% +$12
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 620 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1108 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 1108 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×124.86 per $1 lost it wins $124.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized+$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1104 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1108 / 1111
History coverage57d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day33.9
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Durasovic (-1.5) vs Vela (+1.5) Vela 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Set 2 Winner: Aksu vs Salah Salah 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Set 1 Winner: Rachapudi vs Mi Mi 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Sevcikova (-1.5) vs Safta (+1.5) Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
ITF Men Bourg-En-Bresse: Completed Match: Arthur Bonnaud vs Mickael Ka Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Ligniere vs Gima Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
ITF Women Haskovo: Completed Match: Valeriia Artemeva vs Zhibek Kulamb Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Artemeva vs Kulambayeva Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Ivanova vs Matoula Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
ITF Women Klosters: Completed Match: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Chopra vs Phillips Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Sach vs Oki Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
ITF Men Tokyo: Completed Match: Tai Leonard Sach vs Yuto Oki Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Fang An Lin Jun 18 $77 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $378 $0 +0%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Kalina vs Latak Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $377 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Atmane (+1.5) Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs Alexandrova Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Schell (-1.5) vs Plunger (+1.5) Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Dublin (Doubles): Barry/Gannon vs Bianchi/Perez Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Tiafoe vs Shimabukuro Jun 17 $173 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Garcia vs Kuhl Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Wehnelt vs Gruenig Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Poljicak vs Barun Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Hanfmann/Struff Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
ITF Women Klosters: Completed Match: Kristyna Paul vs Emily Seibold Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Lekomtseva (-1.5) vs Aksu (+1.5) Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Panshina (-1.5) vs Li (+1.5) Jun 17 $85 $0 +0%
Poznan: Completed Match: Duda/Vrbensky vs Cervantes/Molchanov Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Rabbat (-1.5) vs Yesypchuk (+1.5) Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
ITF Haskovo: Valeria Garnevska vs Lia Karatancheva Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-4.5) Jun 17 $72 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Fortaleza EC 0 - 3 América FC? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) Jun 17 $348 $0 +0%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Ho Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $375 $0 +0%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jun 16 $87 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Heredia vs Ambrogi Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $375 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Simakin vs Vasami Jun 16 $31 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Coulibaly vs Balshaw Jun 16 $21 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Safiullin vs Holmgren Jun 16 $85 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Bertola vs Wu Jun 16 $190 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Safiullin vs Holmgren Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Olmo vs You Jun 16 $42 $0 +0%
Parma: Completed Match: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 16 $148 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Durasovic (-1.5) vs Vela (+1.5) BUY Vela 100¢ $100 15m
Set 1 Winner: Rachapudi vs Mi BUY Mi 100¢ $9 17m
Set Handicap: Sevcikova (-1.5) vs Safta (+1.5) BUY Safta 100¢ $100 32m
ITF Men Bourg-En-Bresse: Completed Match: Arthur Bonnaud vs Mickael Ka BUY Yes 100¢ $5 58m
Set 2 Winner: Aksu vs Salah BUY Salah 100¢ $50 1h
Set 1 Winner: Ligniere vs Gima BUY Gima 100¢ $100 1h
ITF Women Haskovo: Completed Match: Valeriia Artemeva vs Zhibek Kulamb BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Set 1 Winner: Artemeva vs Kulambayeva BUY Kulambayeva 100¢ $100 1h
Set 1 Winner: Ivanova vs Matoula BUY Matoula 100¢ $5 1h
ITF Women Klosters: Completed Match: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Set 1 Winner: Chopra vs Phillips BUY Chopra 100¢ $14 1h
ITF Men Tokyo: Completed Match: Tai Leonard Sach vs Yuto Oki BUY Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Set 2 Winner: Sach vs Oki BUY Sach 100¢ $5 2h
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Fang An Lin BUY Yuno Kitahara 100¢ $77 4h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 6h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 100¢ $78 6h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 6h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 6h
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) BUY Washington Mystics 100¢ $72 8h
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) BUY Washington Mystics 100¢ $2 8h
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) BUY Washington Mystics 100¢ $26 8h
Set 1 Winner: Kalina vs Latak BUY Kalina 100¢ $38 12h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 100¢ $100 15h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 100¢ $100 15h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 100¢ $100 15h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 100¢ $78 15h
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Atmane (+1.5) BUY Medvedev 100¢ $13 15h
Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs Alexandrova BUY Sabalenka 100¢ $73 17h
Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs Alexandrova BUY Sabalenka 100¢ $27 17h
Set Handicap: Schell (-1.5) vs Plunger (+1.5) BUY Schell 100¢ $100 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.95 · official $158.95 (match) · 3033 history records