Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:01:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4bf5…29ac
sports · 1130 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,546 -27%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,544 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Net worth$26
Realized−$1,544
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses532 / 584
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1116 / 1130
History coverage61d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day26.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 14 History 1116 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$11
14 days−$40
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Over 49¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+104%)
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Golden Knights 65¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Over 66¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Little Rock: Michael Mmoh vs Justin Boulais Michael Mmoh 67¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+49%)
SC Recife vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Over 84¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 4.5 Under 86¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Under 81¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Under 88¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Mexico vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Under 89¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Under 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Brazil 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 61¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 31¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Brazil 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jordan 73¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 25¢ 25¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Team Falcons 51¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+96%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Iraq 43¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 0.5 Over 95¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 37¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
New York Yankees vs. Athletics New York Yankees 62¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+61%)
New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Over 53¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+89%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Under 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +119%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +134%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$1 -42%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +17%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) Jun 13 $1 +$4 +388%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Alicia Dudeney vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 +$3 +307%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $1 +$1 +124%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 80% −$1,503
sports 20% −$43
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $1 47m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 83¢ $1 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Brazil 96¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $1 1h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 60¢ $1 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $1 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 70¢ $1 2h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 46¢ $1 3h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 85¢ $1 3h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 65¢ $1 3h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 34¢ $1 3h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 3h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 34¢ $1 3h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 61¢ $1 3h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 3h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 61¢ $1 3h
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 20¢ $1 3h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 42¢ $1 3h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 3h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 69¢ $1 3h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1 3h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $1 3h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 82¢ $1 3h
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 48¢ $1 4h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 50¢ $1 4h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 254 -4.3% -13.5% 62% 56% -13.5%
≤30d 963 -3.6% -12.8% 51% 45% -12.8%
≤90d 1116 -8.0% -16.8% 48% 41% -36.3%
all 1116 -8.0% -16.8% 48% 41% -36.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 41% -36.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 35% -42.4%
15% -32.0% 31% -48.0%
20% -38.7% 27% -53.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.77 · official $23.97 · 2729 history records