Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:23:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4B 0x4bf4…7021 world 278 markets active 9h ago coverage 48d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$8,456 (+7%) realized +$8,303 · open +$153
Gross ROI / mkt +80% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate84%220W / 41L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$419per market
Trades / day67.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$6,340now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 48d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$9,854
other 31% +$3,552
politics 8% +$2,429
crypto 4% +$450
economics 3% +$358
tech 1% +$159
finance 0% +$100
culture 0% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+62.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +6.8% -3.4% 75% 42% -1.5%
≤30d 164 +95.6% +77.0% 80% 51% +4.8%
≤90d 261 +79.5% +62.4% 84% 44% +5.6%
all 261 +79.5% +62.4% 84% 44% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +62.4% 44% +5.6%
10% ← realistic here +46.8% 36% -4.5%
15% +32.7% 31% -13.7%
20% +19.6% 28% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +79% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +71% → late +88% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$41 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.99 per $1 lost it wins $10.99
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$6,340
Realized+$8,303
Unrealized+$153
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses220 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)261 / 278
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$419
Trades / day67.3
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 261 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 75¢ 98¢ $750 $977 +$227 (+30%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 95¢ 95¢ $951 $952 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 63¢ 68¢ $863 $918 +$55 (+6%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $930 $865 −$65 (-7%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 42¢ 42¢ $850 $850 +$0 (+0%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 56¢ 57¢ $532 $546 +$14 (+3%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 50¢ 54¢ $500 $535 +$35 (+7%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 26¢ 25¢ $261 $246 −$16 (-6%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $159 $170 +$11 (+7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $145 $152 +$8 (+5%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $88 $93 +$5 (+5%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 38¢ 14¢ $53 $19 −$34 (-64%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ $73 $11 −$63 (-85%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $20 $3 −$17 (-85%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $7 $1 −$6 (-91%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $1,235 −$124 -10%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $5,931 +$435 +7%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 22 $980 +$20 +2%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $289 +$47 +16%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 22 $5,061 +$336 +7%
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? Jun 22 $734 +$216 +30%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $3,870 +$506 +13%
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $589 +$196 +33%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $7,388 +$980 +13%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $82 −$14 -17%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $409 +$113 +28%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 22 $939 −$49 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $221 +$19 +9%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 20 $1,012 +$513 +51%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 20 $51 +$8 +15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $2,433 +$167 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 19 $280 −$20 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $337 +$128 +38%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 18 $175 +$36 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $12,055 +$1,070 +9%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $886 −$511 -58%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 17 $930 +$67 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 17 $238 +$4 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $60 −$28 -46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,090 +$75 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2,088 +$172 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $5,671 +$50 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $799 +$30 +4%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 14 $160 +$39 +24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $831 −$187 -22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $665 −$84 -13%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $569 −$65 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1,813 +$72 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -88%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $833 +$65 +8%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 14 $423 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $294 +$23 +8%
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw Jun 13 $27 −$5 -19%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Jun 12 $1,921 +$13 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 12 $967 +$5 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $118 +$12 +10%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 12 $2,126 +$13 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $361 −$54 -15%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 11 $185 +$4 +2%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 11 $765 +$10 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 10 $782 +$319 +41%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 10 $504 +$932 +185%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 10 $1,224 +$449 +37%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $559 −$10 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $722 −$10 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 95¢ $17 8h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 95¢ $65 8h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 56¢ $7 8h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 56¢ $8 9h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 56¢ $7 11h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 56¢ $25 11h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 56¢ $13 11h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 95¢ $143 12h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 95¢ $25 12h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 56¢ $66 12h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 56¢ $84 12h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 56¢ $84 12h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 56¢ $33 12h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 95¢ $97 12h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 56¢ $29 13h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 56¢ $32 13h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 56¢ $48 13h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 95¢ $143 13h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 95¢ $25 13h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 95¢ $143 14h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 95¢ $143 14h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 95¢ $152 14h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 56¢ $34 14h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 56¢ $62 14h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 24¢ $164 14h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 34¢ $68 33h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 41¢ $43 33h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 41¢ $0 33h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 41¢ $38 33h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 63¢ $523 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,339.88 · official $6,339.82 (match) · 3500 history records