Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:31:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4bf2…d280
sports · 1459 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$15,668 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14,745 · open −$924
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,858
Realized−$14,745
Unrealized−$924
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses1007 / 678
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$967
Open positions26
Markets (closed)1685 / 1459
History coverage35d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day68.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 26 History 1685 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32,105
7 days−$27,734
14 days−$21,363
30 days−$12,018
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: United States (-2.5) Paraguay 92¢ 84¢ $2,391 $2,170 −$221 (-9%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? No 93¢ 94¢ $809 $815 +$6 (+1%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Washington Mystics 89¢ 92¢ $642 $656 +$14 (+2%)
Qatar leading at halftime? No 92¢ 92¢ $310 $312 +$2 (+1%)
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Holon BC Maccabi Tel-Aviv 87¢ 100¢ $220 $250 +$30 (+14%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 88¢ 94¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? No 92¢ 92¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 64¢ $84 $58 −$26 (-31%)
Spread: O'Higgins FC (-2.5) CD Coquimbo Unido 97¢ 98¢ $48 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Under 98¢ 97¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Under 34¢ 16¢ $95 $43 −$52 (-54%)
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 0.5 Under 8¢ 7¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-3%)
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 0.5 Over 95¢ 95¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Under 97¢ 94¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Club Aurora win on 2026-05-08? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $9 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 34¢ 0¢ $697 $10 −$687 (-99%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Under 8¢ 8¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+6%)
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 1.5 Under 21¢ 57¢ $3 $9 +$5 (+171%)
Spread: CSD Colo-Colo (-2.5) CSD Colo-Colo 30¢ 32¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 25¢ 44¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+78%)
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 0.5 Under 7¢ 8¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 9¢ 10¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Under 5¢ 5¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 Over 9¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jun 13 $300 −$300 -100%
LoL: ZeroZone Gaming vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 13 $270 −$270 -100%
Anadolu Efes vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 13 $71 −$71 -100%
Will CA Barracas Central vs. CA Banfield end in a draw? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Pistons vs. Raptors Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
La Union vs. Gimnasia Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Barcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Janice Tjen Jun 13 $97 −$97 -100%
Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: FK Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
AHL: Hershey Bears vs. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Adelaide 36ers vs. Sydney Kings Jun 13 $218 −$218 -100%
Wuning: Yi Zhou vs Kody Pearson Jun 13 $112 −$112 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Jusuf Nurkić: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $203 −$203 -100%
Rotterdam Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 13 $123 −$123 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Casper Ruud Jun 13 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club vs. Al Taawoun Saudi Club end in a draw? Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Milwaukee Panthers vs. Northern Kentucky Norse: O/U 156.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Llaneros FC vs. Once Caldas: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Rice Owls vs. East Carolina Pirates Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Basquet Club Andorra Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Spread: CD Unión La Calera (-2.5) Jun 13 $250 −$250 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Pistons vs. Pacers Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
North Texas Mean Green vs. Temple Owls Jun 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Abidjan: Gauthier Onclin vs Calvin Hemery Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club win on 2026-01-09? Jun 13 $219 −$219 -100%
Kigali 2: Marco Trungelliti vs Zdenek Kolar Jun 13 $199 −$199 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $405 −$405 -100%
ASB Classic: Nuno Borges vs Eliot Spizzirri Jun 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics Jun 13 $109 −$109 -100%
Nets vs. Magic Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Delray Beach Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Zachary Svajda Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 13 $118 −$118 -100%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs NAVI Junior (BO3) Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $165 −$165 -100%
North Carolina A&T Aggies vs. Hampton Pirates Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Shymkent: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Sean Cuenin Jun 13 $326 −$326 -100%
Suns vs. Bucks Jun 13 $79 −$79 -100%
Mavericks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs ENCE Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Split: Ergi Kirkin vs Sandro Kopp Jun 13 $451 −$451 -100%
Men's Group A - Switzerland vs. Czechia Jun 13 $513 −$513 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 57% +$12,594
other 43% +$5,083
crypto 0% +$10
politics 0% −$14
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 92¢ $101 19m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 92¢ $28 21m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 92¢ $100 22m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 92¢ $101 22m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 92¢ $101 23m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 86¢ $70 27m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 86¢ $69 27m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 86¢ $68 28m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 89¢ $105 28m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 88¢ $100 47m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 89¢ $100 50m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 92¢ $1,394 1h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 92¢ $1,002 1h
Will AC Goianiense vs. CR Brasil end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 1h
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will AC Goianiense vs. CR Brasil end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 1h
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 40¢ $102 2h
Will AC Goianiense vs. CR Brasil end in a draw? BUY No 94¢ $91 2h
Will AC Goianiense vs. CR Brasil end in a draw? BUY No 94¢ $401 2h
Will AC Goianiense vs. CR Brasil end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $401 2h
Will AC Goianiense vs. CR Brasil end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $301 2h
Will AC Goianiense vs. CR Brasil end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $100 2h
Will AC Goianiense vs. CR Brasil end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $100 2h
Will AC Goianiense vs. CR Brasil end in a draw? BUY No 95¢ $23 2h
Will AC Goianiense vs. CR Brasil end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $29 3h
Will AC Goianiense vs. CR Brasil end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3h
Spread: CSD Colo-Colo (-2.5) BUY CSD Colo-Colo 30¢ $8 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 34¢ $97 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 604 -49.0% -53.9% 33% 16% -36.4%
≤30d 1361 -11.9% -20.3% 59% 26% -14.7%
≤90d 1685 -10.4% -18.9% 60% 27% -14.9%
all 1685 -10.4% -18.9% 60% 27% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover68.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 27% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 19% -23.1%
15% -33.8% 15% -30.5%
20% -40.3% 12% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,857.81 · official $4,857.81 (match) · 3500 history records