Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:07:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4B 0x4bf0…25e9 sports 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+5%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%23W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$37
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$7
sports 37% +$16
world 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +22.7% +11.0% 50% 44% +15.5%
≤30d 49 +8.1% -2.2% 47% 43% -7.1%
≤90d 49 +8.1% -2.2% 47% 43% -7.1%
all 49 +8.1% -2.2% 47% 43% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 43% -7.1%
10% -11.5% 41% -16.0%
15% -20.1% 41% -24.1%
20% -27.9% 35% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses23 / 26
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage14d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $67 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$4 +79%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $3 +$2 +72%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 +$16 +511%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $5 +$6 +108%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$9 +44%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 +$7 +233%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -96%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 −$4 -51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $29 +$14 +47%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $28 +$10 +37%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 19 $8 −$1 -6%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 $0 -16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $5 +$3 +59%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +53%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +82%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $3 +$2 +62%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +216%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $6 +$1 +14%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$18 -71%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +91%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 +$2 +95%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $7 −$2 -28%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -75%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +51%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $4 +$4 +91%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $4 +$7 +170%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +227%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -41%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $6 −$3 -49%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 11 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $68 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 9h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 10h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 11h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 13h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 15h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 15h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 99¢ $11 16h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $5 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $3 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $10 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $29 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $18 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 41¢ $10 4d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) SELL New York Yankees 54¢ $8 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 42¢ $11 4d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $8 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.41 · official $71.41 (match) · 105 history records