Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4B 0x4bee…ca01 sports 521 markets active 1h ago coverage 581d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Covers last 581d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,599 (+2%) realized +$6,300 · open −$1,701
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%245W / 272L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$376per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$158est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$94
7 days−$779
14 days+$2,095
30 days+$1,767
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$3,786
world 8% +$7,627
other 7% −$114
culture 4% +$477
politics 3% −$635
crypto 0% −$389
tech 0% −$129
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -41.3% -46.8% 33% 33% -51.7%
≤30d 25 -5.2% -14.2% 44% 44% +7.1%
≤90d 25 -5.2% -14.2% 44% 44% +7.1%
all 517 -10.0% -18.6% 47% 44% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 44% -7.3%
10% -26.4% 41% -16.2%
15% -33.5% 35% -24.3%
20% -40.0% 27% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$284 vs −$239 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

581d coverage
Net worth$1,484
Realized+$6,300
Unrealized−$1,701
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses245 / 272
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$158
Open positions4
Markets (closed)517 / 521
History coverage581d ⚠
Avg bet$376
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 517 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 55¢ 66¢ $870 $1,036 +$166 (+19%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 63¢ 34¢ $500 $273 −$227 (-45%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $200 $173 −$27 (-13%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 46¢ 0¢ $999 $1 −$998 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 49¢ 0¢ $450 $0 −$450 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $507 +$386 +76%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $488 −$480 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $693 −$685 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $405 +$285 +70%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $229 −$225 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,000 +$588 +59%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 11 $404 −$400 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $645 +$605 +94%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $296 +$303 +102%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $149 +$292 +196%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $100 −$99 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $406 +$394 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $407 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $405 −$400 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +101%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $1,001 +$1,095 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $512 +$757 +148%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 08 $542 +$1,178 +217%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $197 −$192 -98%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 01 $19 −$18 -97%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $119 −$116 -97%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Jan 31 $160 +$316 +198%
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Jan 31 $548 −$148 -27%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 30 $520 −$520 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner Jan 30 $202 +$263 +130%
Set Handicap: Sinner (-2.5) vs Djokovic (+2.5) Jan 30 $264 −$264 -100%
Djokovic vs. Sinner: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jan 30 $218 −$218 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs strongboys - Game 1 Winner Jan 30 $123 −$123 -100%
Djokovic vs. Sinner: Match O/U 36.5 Jan 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Bublik vs Alex de Minaur Jan 25 $92 −$92 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs Jan 24 $19 +$25 +132%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jan 24 $72 −$72 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jan 24 $19 +$4 +20%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jan 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Dec 23 $105 −$32 -30%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Dec 23 $353 −$353 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Dec 23 $199 −$170 -86%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 3 Winner Dec 23 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Passion UA - Map 1 Winner Dec 23 $145 −$145 -100%
Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Dec 23 $207 −$207 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner Dec 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 Winner Dec 23 $105 −$105 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Dec 23 $251 −$251 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Dec 23 $267 −$267 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) Dec 23 $140 −$140 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 63¢ $506 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 49¢ $457 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $882 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $1,015 20h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $488 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $507 28h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $693 3d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $229 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $404 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 58¢ $405 7d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $100 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $141 8d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $100 8d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) BUY FURIA 50¢ $98 8d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) BUY FURIA 48¢ $102 8d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) BUY FURIA 48¢ $96 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $47 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $405 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 28¢ $102 8d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $1,016 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 63¢ $612 9d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 63¢ $2 9d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 63¢ $170 9d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 63¢ $9 9d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 63¢ $7 9d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 63¢ $82 9d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 63¢ $80 9d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 63¢ $40 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,483.75 · official $1,483.83 (match) · 3443 history records