Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:27:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4B 0x4bed…f12d other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-1%) realized −$29 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$421per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$31
politics 36% −$2
world 19% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 3 -2.5% -11.8% 0% 0% -12.1%
all 4 -1.9% -11.2% 0% 0% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -11.4%
10% -19.7% 0% -19.9%
15% -27.5% 0% -27.6%
20% -34.6% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$17 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$484
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage97d
Avg bet$421
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $483 $484 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? May 28 $405 $0 +0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $461 −$32 -7%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $336 −$2 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $419 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $483.81 · official $483.56 (match) · 25 history records