Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4B 0x4bed…7574 crypto 244 markets active 1h ago coverage 969d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$374 (+2%) realized +$385 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate50%121W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$422now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days+$1,814
14 days+$1,807
30 days+$1,642
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$693
world 11% +$1,217
sports 9% +$177
other 7% −$125
politics 2% −$308
economics 1% −$80
weather 1% −$49
finance 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +148.7% +125.0% 43% 43% +156.3%
≤30d 29 +18.1% +6.9% 31% 28% +75.9%
≤90d 84 -12.9% -21.2% 42% 30% +22.0%
all 242 -11.2% -19.6% 50% 31% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 31% -8.0%
10% -27.3% 26% -16.8%
15% -34.3% 22% -24.8%
20% -40.8% 17% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$36 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

969d coverage
Net worth$422
Realized+$385
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses121 / 121
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)242 / 244
History coverage969d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 78¢ 78¢ $256 $257 +$2 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $177 $164 −$13 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $40 +$218 +549%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $61 −$21 -35%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $250 −$188 -76%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 20 $141 −$84 -60%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$91 +179%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $101 −$50 -49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $347 +$1,849 +532%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $89 +$101 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +68%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $20 −$18 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $39 −$21 -54%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $86 −$46 -53%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $103 −$20 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $225 −$120 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 27 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 27 $2 +$2 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 27 $3 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 25 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 25 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 25 $12 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 25 $4 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 25 $4 +$3 +79%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $16 −$10 -61%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $38 +$11 +30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 23 $40 −$6 -16%
BNB Up or Down - May 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 22 $24 −$24 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 21 $39 −$38 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 21 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11AM ET May 21 $52 −$41 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 21 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 21 $309 −$232 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 21 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 21 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 16 $15 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 16 $14 +$7 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 16 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 11 $4 +$1 +19%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 10 $64 −$63 -99%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $11 +$3 +24%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $9 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $257 43m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $257 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $40 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 36¢ $40 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $61 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $61 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $177 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $83 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $19 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $40 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $0 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $10 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $5 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 17¢ $56 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $34 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $55 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 8¢ $200 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $200 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $200 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $200 31h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 40¢ $141 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $141 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 21¢ $51 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $50 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $50 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $2,196 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $98 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $421.61 · official $421.61 (match) · 656 history records