Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:36:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

4B 0x4bed…b122 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$3 (+6%) realized +$3 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate64%14W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$2per market

Trades / day35.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)-10.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	-0.6%	-10.1%	64%	55%	-9.1%
≤30d	22	-0.6%	-10.1%	64%	55%	-9.1%
≤90d	22	-0.6%	-10.1%	64%	55%	-9.1%
all	22	-0.6%	-10.1%	64%	55%	-9.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover35.1 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-10.1%	55%	-9.1%
10% ← realistic here	-18.7%	45%	-17.8%
15%	-26.6%	36%	-25.7%
20%	-33.8%	32%	-33.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

7% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -5% → late +4% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.02 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$3

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)64%

Wins / losses14 / 8

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)22 / 22

History coverage1d

Avg bet$2

Trades / day35.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 22 Trades

no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$2	+74%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$1	+62%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-94%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Jun 16	$2	$0	+14%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$1	+34%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$2	+112%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$2	+86%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$1	+64%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Jun 16	$4	−$2	-48%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Jun 16	$2	$0	+3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$1	+36%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Jun 16	$2	$0	-7%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Jun 16	$2	$0	+10%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Jun 16	$2	$0	+15%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Jun 15	$2	+$2	+72%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Jun 15	$2	+$1	+28%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Jun 15	$2	+$2	+83%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$4	54m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$2	1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	SELL Down	76¢	$3	1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$2	1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$2	5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	BUY Up	11¢	$2	5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$2	5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	SELL Down	65¢	$2	15h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$2	15h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	SELL Down	80¢	$3	15h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$2	15h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$4	15h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	BUY Down	45¢	$2	15h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$2	16h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$2	16h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	SELL Down	50¢	$3	16h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	BUY Down	28¢	$2	16h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$2	16h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	SELL Down	64¢	$3	16h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$2	16h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	SELL Down	49¢	$2	16h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$2	16h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	SELL Down	68¢	$3	16h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$2	17h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	SELL Down	59¢	$2	17h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$2	17h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	SELL Down	60¢	$2	17h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$2	17h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	SELL Down	94¢	$2	17h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$2	17h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records