Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:04:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4B 0x4beb…e747 sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$31 (+22%) realized +$25 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$33
other 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +25.3% +13.4% 56% 56% +14.3%
≤30d 9 +25.3% +13.4% 56% 56% +14.3%
≤90d 9 +25.3% +13.4% 56% 56% +14.3%
all 9 +25.3% +13.4% 56% 56% +14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.4% 56% +14.3%
10% +2.6% 56% +3.3%
15% -7.4% 56% -6.7%
20% -16.4% 33% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×3.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.5 per $1 lost it wins $4.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage4d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Atlanta Braves 56¢ 69¢ $23 $29 +$6 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 27 $30 −$5 -16%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $19 +$13 +70%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $3 −$1 -37%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 25 $16 +$10 +62%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 24 $10 +$5 +48%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $9 $0 -5%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $14 +$6 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 +$2 +110%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $3 −$2 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $10 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ $25 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 68¢ $10 7h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 93¢ $33 7h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $12 7h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Atlanta Braves 52¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 7h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $7 7h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 11h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $5 13h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 71¢ $20 19h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 60¢ $20 19h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 83¢ $15 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 61¢ $16 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 61¢ $9 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 94¢ $20 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $9 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $4 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $4 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 31¢ $2 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.81 · official $28.82 (match) · 25 history records