Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:56:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4be7…8e91 other 412 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,569 (-3%) realized −$1,459 · open −$110
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate55%257W / 207L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$2,574now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$102
sports 13% −$1,389
politics 10% +$392
world 3% −$62
crypto 1% +$93
tech 0% −$15
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 -71.4% -74.1% 23% 11% -59.9%
≤30d 199 -29.7% -36.4% 43% 31% -49.7%
≤90d 464 -3.3% -12.5% 55% 30% -33.8%
all 464 -3.3% -12.5% 55% 30% -33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 30% -33.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 18% -40.1%
15% -28.5% 14% -45.9%
20% -35.5% 9% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$120 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$2,574
Realized−$1,459
Unrealized−$110
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses257 / 207
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions28
Markets (closed)464 / 412
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$129
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 464 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $726 $748 +$22 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $838 $720 −$118 (-14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $220 $219 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 81¢ $163 $162 −$1 (-1%)
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 49¢ 74¢ $106 $159 +$53 (+50%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 59¢ 100¢ $89 $150 +$61 (+69%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $98 $98 +$0 (+0%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? No 32¢ 50¢ $35 $54 +$19 (+55%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $56 $54 −$2 (-4%)
Özgür Özel arrested by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $45 $50 +$5 (+10%)
Will Little Joe escape again? No 96¢ 99¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Weed rescheduled by December 31? No 36¢ 74¢ $14 $30 +$15 (+105%)
Solana all time high by September 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$1 (+8%)
Weed rescheduled by December 31? Yes 64¢ 26¢ $25 $10 −$15 (-59%)
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mohamed Salah play in Saudi Pro League next? Yes 71¢ 46¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-36%)
Will Mariah Carey have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Discord IPO before 2027? Yes 93¢ 63¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-33%)
Will Mohamed Salah play in Süper Lig next? Yes 2¢ 45¢ $0 $6 +$5 (+2145%)
Will Italy participate in Eurovision 2027? No 8¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-53%)
Will Albania win Junior Eurovision 2026? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Claudio Lotito sells Lazio in 2026? Yes 5¢ 48¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+850%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 168 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elche CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Göztepe SK win on 2026-01-31? Jun 23 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK vs. Antalyaspor end in a draw? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Rockets vs. Kings Jun 23 $1,152 −$1,152 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-01-31? Jun 23 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Hellas Verona FC vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-14? Jun 23 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-14? Jun 23 $176 −$176 -100%
Nuggets vs. Celtics Jun 23 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-08? Jun 23 $196 −$196 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Parma Calcio 1913 end in a draw? Jun 23 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Çaykur Rizespor end in a draw? Jun 23 $606 −$606 -100%
Will Gaziantep FK win on 2025-12-21? Jun 23 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Konyaspor vs. Kayserispor end in a draw? Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: HMBLE vs Zena Esports (BO1) Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-14? Jun 23 $197 −$197 -100%
Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-02-16? Jun 23 $114 −$114 -100%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-24? Jun 23 $80 −$80 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-01? Jun 23 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-01-18? Jun 23 $272 −$272 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? Jun 23 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Antalyaspor win on 2026-04-10? Jun 23 $9 −$4 -47%
Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2026-02-08? Jun 23 $312 −$312 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Jazz Jun 23 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-03-15? Jun 23 $87 −$87 -100%
Thunder vs. Heat Jun 23 $355 −$355 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-01-29? Jun 23 $49 −$49 -100%
Nuggets vs. 76ers Jun 23 $1,362 −$1,362 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-04-05? Jun 23 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Gaziantep FK end in a draw? Jun 23 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Çaykur Rizespor vs. Alanyaspor end in a draw? Jun 23 $289 −$289 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-13? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Pacers vs. Wizards Jun 23 $227 −$227 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Jun 23 $927 −$927 -100%
Will Samsunspor vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw? Jun 23 $158 −$158 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $136 −$136 -100%
Will Konyaspor vs. Kasımpaşa SK end in a draw? Jun 23 $333 −$333 -100%
Will Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Çaykur Rizespor end in a draw? Jun 23 $156 −$156 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Jun 23 $516 −$516 -100%
Will Kocaelispor vs. Rams Başakşehir FK end in a draw? Jun 23 $303 −$303 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cameroon win on 2025-12-24? Jun 23 $475 −$475 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on December 27? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-08? Jun 23 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Angola vs. Zimbabwe end in a draw? Jun 23 $174 −$174 -100%
Clippers vs. Rockets Jun 23 $585 −$585 -100%
Will Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Trabzonspor end in a draw? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 32¢ $36 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $108 1h
Luis Díaz: 3+ goals SELL No 97¢ $10 5h
Luis Díaz: 3+ goals SELL No 97¢ $48 5h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals SELL No 89¢ $177 5h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals SELL No 72¢ $143 5h
Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals SELL No 91¢ $182 5h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY No 72¢ $25 6h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY No 72¢ $8 6h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY No 72¢ $111 6h
Luis Díaz: 3+ goals BUY No 95¢ $57 8h
Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals BUY No 90¢ $90 9h
Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals BUY No 90¢ $16 9h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 88¢ $33 10h
Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals BUY No 90¢ $45 11h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 88¢ $75 12h
Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals BUY No 90¢ $17 12h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 88¢ $69 12h
Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals BUY No 90¢ $12 12h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 72¢ $0 13h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 72¢ $38 13h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 72¢ $5 13h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 72¢ $4 13h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 72¢ $4 13h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 72¢ $26 13h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 72¢ $12 13h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 72¢ $3 13h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 72¢ $4 13h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 72¢ $64 13h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 72¢ $8 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,573.86 · official $2,569.91 (match) · 3500 history records