Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:30:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4B 0x4be6…b010 sports 1104 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,996 (-9%) realized −$10,353 · open −$643
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%532W / 565L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day48.3pace
Fees−$1,967est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days−$935
14 days−$2,736
30 days−$5,022
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$8,796
other 4% −$476
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 +2.5% -7.2% 50% 50% -18.1%
≤30d 612 -9.7% -18.3% 46% 46% -17.5%
≤90d 1097 -7.5% -16.3% 48% 48% -15.9%
all 1097 -7.5% -16.3% 48% 48% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 48% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 46% -23.9%
15% -31.6% 41% -31.3%
20% -38.3% 34% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$92 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$10,353
Unrealized−$643
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses532 / 565
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$1,967
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1097 / 1104
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$112
Trades / day48.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1097 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Yulia Starodubtseva 46¢ 16¢ $345 $125 −$220 (-64%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 56¢ 0¢ $175 $0 −$175 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Shimabukuro 58¢ 0¢ $175 $0 −$175 (-100%)
Frances Tiafoe vs. Sho Shimabukuro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 43¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Sho Shimabukuro 32¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $122 +$128 +105%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $51 +$42 +83%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $45 +$26 +57%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $22 +$25 +114%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $76 +$80 +105%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 17 $9 +$18 +202%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 17 $36 +$43 +121%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $25 +$26 +103%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $33 +$34 +103%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $25 +$46 +180%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $76 +$51 +67%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $56 +$40 +71%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $36 +$38 +107%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $25 +$40 +156%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 +$37 +145%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $25 +$16 +62%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Set Handicap: Norrie (-1.5) vs Fokina (+1.5) Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $127 −$127 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $137 +$102 +74%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $51 +$35 +68%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $198 −$198 -100%
Etcheverry vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Etcheverry (+1.5) Jun 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $154 −$154 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei Jun 16 $279 +$380 +136%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 16 $146 +$131 +89%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $25 +$33 +128%
Brooksby vs. Damm: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $24 +$21 +88%
Jenson Brooksby vs. Martin Damm: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $76 +$98 +128%
Set Handicap: Damm (-1.5) vs Brooksby (+1.5) Jun 16 $177 +$98 +55%
Set Handicap: Frech (-1.5) vs Lys (+1.5) Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Andrey Rublev vs. Hubert Hurkacz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $188 −$188 -100%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 16 $76 +$63 +82%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $20 +$50 +246%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $127 −$127 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 46¢ $97 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 45¢ $254 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 32¢ $22 2h
Frances Tiafoe vs. Sho Shimabukuro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 43¢ $51 2h
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) BUY Shimabukuro 58¢ $177 2h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Nikola Bartunkova 100¢ $250 2h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 48¢ $122 4h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 56¢ $177 4h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 99¢ $28 12h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 99¢ $79 12h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $22 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $45 12h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $76 12h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Joaquin Aguilar 54¢ $51 12h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 99¢ $52 13h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 99¢ $0 13h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Toronto Tempo 22¢ $11 13h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL 98¢ $66 13h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $71 13h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $127 13h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 59¢ $76 13h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $67 13h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2 13h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2 13h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $7 13h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2 13h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $5 13h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.49 · official $182.30 · 3500 history records