Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:00:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4be5…86f0 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%36W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$599now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$51
14 days−$59
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$69
crypto 26% +$5
world 8% +$32
politics 3% +$1
tech 2% +$2
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -7.5%
≤30d 31 -2.2% -11.5% 97% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 37 -1.8% -11.2% 97% 0% -9.8%
all 37 -1.8% -11.2% 97% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$118 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$599
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses36 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)37 / 41
History coverage46d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethena reach $0.24 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $315 $316 +$1 (+0%)
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $151 $150 −$1 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $140 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $8.00 end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $51 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 15 above $6.50? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $81 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $650 +$30 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $466 +$7 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 14 $605 +$13 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $118 +$1 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $140 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 11? Jun 11 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 11? Jun 11 $139 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $287 +$3 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $121 −$118 -97%
Will XRP reach $1.90 June 1-7? Jun 08 $222 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $138 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $150 June 1-7? Jun 08 $215 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $166 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $128 +$1 +1%
Will Ethena reach $0.20 in May? Jun 01 $372 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 01 $351 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $725 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $715 +$11 +2%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading May 22 $457 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 18 above $265? May 22 $198 +$2 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.90 May 11-17? May 18 $55 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 May 11-17? May 18 $659 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $9.00-$10 on the final day of trading of May 15 $111 +$1 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the May 15 $294 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of th May 15 $301 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $708 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $8.00 end of June? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Silver (SI) settle over $140 on the final trading day of June 202 BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $151 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 15 above $6.50? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 2d
Will Ethena reach $0.24 in June? BUY No 99¢ $315 6d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 6d
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 6d
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 6d
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 6d
Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $680 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $650 6d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $47 6d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $149 6d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $270 6d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? SELL No 86¢ $272 6d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? SELL No 87¢ $346 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $592 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 81¢ $13 7d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $120 7d
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $140 10d
Will NYC Mayor post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 10d
Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 10d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $3 11d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 13d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $272 13d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $118 13d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $139 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $598.67 · official $598.67 (match) · 101 history records