Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4bdf…c9ca sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$627 (-2%) realized −$615 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate61%20W / 13L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$714per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$132est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$992now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$113
14 days−$113
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$468
other 4% −$3
crypto 0% −$101
world 0% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -19.9% -27.5% 43% 14% -31.5%
≤30d 8 -10.8% -19.3% 50% 25% -6.4%
≤90d 33 -9.9% -18.5% 61% 33% -11.9%
all 33 -9.9% -18.5% 61% 33% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 33% -11.9%
10% -26.3% 24% -20.3%
15% -33.4% 18% -28.0%
20% -39.9% 12% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$285 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$992
Realized−$615
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses20 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$132
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage58d
Avg bet$714
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $690 $688 −$2 (-0%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 27¢ 26¢ $296 $291 −$5 (-2%)
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $17 $13 −$4 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 17 $92 +$8 +9%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 17 $162 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 +$7 +146%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $76 +$6 +8%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $261 +$138 +53%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 17 $175 +$75 +43%
Counter-Strike: Favbet vs TNC - Map 2 Winner May 10 $365 −$365 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $1,560 +$225 +14%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Grou May 07 $7,200 +$800 +11%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner May 07 $494 +$26 +5%
Counter-Strike: Turma do Pagode vs BESTIA Academy - Map 2 Winner May 07 $82 −$82 -100%
Counter-Strike: Brute vs NEW VISION - Map 1 Winner May 07 $2,400 −$2,400 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Lavked - Map 2 Winner May 07 $1,612 +$388 +24%
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner May 07 $1,945 +$155 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 07 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B May 07 $170 −$170 -100%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ASTRAL - Map 2 Winner May 07 $450 −$450 -100%
Counter-Strike: Players vs Alzon (BO3) - CCT South America Series #1 G May 06 $135 +$65 +48%
Counter-Strike: AaB Esport vs GenOne (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Se May 06 $190 +$10 +5%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Lilmix - Map 2 Winner May 06 $65 +$35 +54%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ASTRAL - Map 1 Winner May 06 $1,217 +$82 +7%
Counter-Strike: Favbet vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner May 06 $4,242 +$752 +18%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs UNiTY esports - Map 1 Winner May 06 $309 +$99 +32%
Counter-Strike: Voca vs Zomblers - Map 1 Winner Apr 30 $140 +$110 +79%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $683 +$67 +10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 21 $100 −$1 -0%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $101 +$4 +4%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 Apr 21 $101 $0 -0%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Apr 21 $57 +$1 +2%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $60 −$2 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $707 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $303 1h
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $100 27h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Team Vitality 53¢ $160 27h
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 28h
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 28h
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 28h
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 28h
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 28h
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 28h
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 28h
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 28h
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 28h
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 28h
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 28h
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 28h
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 28h
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 28h
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $24 28h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 53¢ $6 29h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 53¢ $3 30h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 53¢ $11 30h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 53¢ $1 32h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 53¢ $1 32h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 53¢ $1 32h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 53¢ $1 32h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 53¢ $1 32h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 53¢ $1 32h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 53¢ $1 32h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 53¢ $1 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $991.79 · official $989.59 (match) · 391 history records