Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4bdf…815b crypto 1762 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%1727W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day25.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$18
other 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -14.5% -22.7% 85% 0% -22.6%
≤30d 97 -4.4% -13.5% 95% 0% -13.5%
≤90d 1767 -0.8% -10.2% 98% 1% -10.2%
all 1767 -0.8% -10.2% 98% 1% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 1% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1727 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1767 / 1762
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day25.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1767 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 13h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 35h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 43h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $2 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records