Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

4B 0x4bd4…dbad other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$5 (-2%) realized −$3 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip

Net edge-59%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$94per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-57.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-53.0%	-57.5%	0%	0%	-57.0%
≤30d	2	-53.0%	-57.5%	0%	0%	-57.0%
≤90d	2	-53.0%	-57.5%	0%	0%	-57.0%
all	2	-53.0%	-57.5%	0%	0%	-57.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-57.5%	0%	-57.0%
10%	-61.6%	0%	-61.1%
15%	-65.3%	0%	-64.9%
20%	-68.7%	0%	-68.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -52% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -53% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$50 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$85

Realized−$3

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$94

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	19¢	18¢	$88	$85	−$2 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$96	−$93	-97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 17	$96	−$6	-6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	5¢	$96	1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	19¢	$90	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL No	38¢	$90	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	39¢	$96	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.22 · official $85.22 (match) · 4 history records