Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:00:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4bd3…ca6d
crypto · 1461 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$158 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$158 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$158
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses1216 / 245
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1461 / 1461
History coverage35d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day61.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1461 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$309
14 days−$269
30 days−$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 35¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+186%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 98¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$5 +186%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% −$77
sports 2% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $9 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $9 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $9 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 222 -18.9% -26.6% 68% 14% -25.9%
≤30d 918 -2.1% -11.5% 77% 32% -11.4%
≤90d 1461 -1.5% -10.9% 83% 23% -10.4%
all 1461 -1.5% -10.9% 83% 23% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover61.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 23% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 18% -18.9%
15% -27.2% 14% -26.8%
20% -34.3% 10% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records