Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:51:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4bd2…3853 sports 50 markets active 8d ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$23 (-3%) realized −$22 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%14W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$6
sports 35% −$38
crypto 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 49 +1.3% -8.3% 29% 29% -13.4%
≤90d 49 +1.3% -8.3% 29% 29% -13.4%
all 49 +1.3% -8.3% 29% 29% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 29% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 29% -21.7%
15% -25.1% 29% -29.2%
20% -32.4% 27% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$8 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses14 / 35
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage3d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 −$28 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 −$5 -37%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $167 −$47 -28%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -55%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$54 +107%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$9 -46%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 −$4 -88%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$3 -59%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$11 +69%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$26 +253%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $32 +$24 +77%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $6 +$7 +109%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$20 +195%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 +$21 +136%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +114%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$3 -58%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $14 −$4 -29%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$15 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -61%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$25 +405%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 +$4 +40%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $13 +$30 +228%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $27 −$1 -3%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 7d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 7d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 7d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 7d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 7d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 7d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 7d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 7d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 7d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $25 7d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 8d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $118 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $121 8d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 8d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $5 8d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 26¢ $5 8d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 8d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $20 8d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 8d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 8d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 8d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.75 · official $8.75 (match) · 134 history records