Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:20:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4B 0x4bcf…fe64 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$135 (-3%) realized +$403 · open −$198
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$2,618now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$242
7 days+$257
14 days+$397
30 days+$397
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$162
sports 9% +$10
politics 7% +$102
crypto 6% +$212
finance 5% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +15.3% +4.3% 42% 33% +7.3%
≤30d 17 +14.5% +3.6% 53% 41% +8.1%
≤90d 18 +15.4% +4.4% 56% 44% +8.2%
all 18 +15.4% +4.4% 56% 44% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.4% 44% +8.2%
10% -5.6% 33% -2.2%
15% -14.7% 22% -11.6%
20% -23.1% 22% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$36 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.4 per $1 lost it wins $2.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$2,618
Realized+$403
Unrealized−$198
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)18 / 32
History coverage61d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $820 $766 −$54 (-7%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $945 $635 −$310 (-33%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 74¢ $220 $317 +$97 (+44%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $130 $164 +$33 (+26%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $143 +$43 (+43%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $66 +$16 (+33%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-15%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $136 +$287 +211%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $36 −$2 -7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $400 +$12 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $235 +$195 +83%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $102 −$12 -11%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $107 −$12 -11%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $51 −$3 -6%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $51 +$32 +63%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 +$14 +158%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 02 $23 +$3 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 02 $208 +$40 +19%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 02 $319 +$97 +30%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $51 +$4 +8%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 06 $18 +$6 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $223 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 90¢ $423 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 BUY 16¢ $0 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $34 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $33 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $36 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $413 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $400 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $430 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $91 5h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $91 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $144 5h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $95 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $49 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 31¢ $84 27h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $84 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $91 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $24 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $9 3d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 11d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $49 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $685 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $26 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $248 12d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 75¢ $416 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,618.41 · official $2,619.24 (match) · 85 history records