Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:26:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4bcc…b908 weather 396 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$763 (-4%) realized −$778 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate48%191W / 204L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,020now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$61
14 days+$61
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$833
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -0.5% -9.9% 82% 6% -9.0%
≤30d 79 -7.0% -15.9% 70% 9% -9.2%
≤90d 395 -12.1% -20.5% 48% 18% -13.6%
all 395 -12.1% -20.5% 48% 18% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 18% -13.6%
10% -28.1% 13% -21.9%
15% -35.1% 10% -29.4%
20% -41.4% 9% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$2,020
Realized−$778
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses191 / 204
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)395 / 396
History coverage79d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 395 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,005 $2,020 +$15 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 123 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $298 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 28? Jun 28 $641 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 28? Jun 28 $495 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 28? Jun 28 $771 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1,087 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 28? Jun 27 $892 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 27? Jun 27 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 27? Jun 27 $174 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 27? Jun 27 $1,762 +$15 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 27? Jun 27 $462 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 27? Jun 27 $13 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 27? Jun 27 $717 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 26? Jun 26 $67 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 26? Jun 26 $167 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1,213 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $67 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $529 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 26? Jun 26 $672 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 25 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 25 $370 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 25? Jun 25 $62 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $370 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 25? Jun 25 $152 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? Jun 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 24? Jun 24 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 22 $5 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 22? Jun 22 $8 +$7 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 22? Jun 22 $24 −$11 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 21 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 21 $5 −$3 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 21 $5 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 21? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $150 25m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $5 26m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $22 26m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $5 26m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $5 26m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $25 26m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $26 26m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $47 26m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $99 26m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $99 26m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $99 26m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $99 26m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $81 26m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $99 26m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $99 26m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $1,046 26m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $301 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $100 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $174 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $646 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $500 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $776 7h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $312 7h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $456 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,019.85 · official $2,019.85 (match) · 1468 history records