Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:15:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4B 0x4bcb…3a30 crypto 1637 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d only
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$392 (-6%) realized −$392 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate53%875W / 762L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day88.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$20
14 days−$226
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 855 +0.7% -8.9% 49% 49% -8.7%
≤30d 1637 -3.6% -12.8% 53% 40% -11.7%
≤90d 1637 -3.6% -12.8% 53% 40% -11.7%
all 1637 -3.6% -12.8% 53% 40% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 40% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 31% -20.1%
15% -28.8% 31% -27.8%
20% -35.7% 30% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$392
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses875 / 762
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1637 / 1637
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day88.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1637 Trades
no open positions (493 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$7 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records