Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:02:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4B 0x4bc9…b720 sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6,648 (+38%) realized +$6,648 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate89%25W / 3L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$578per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$6,358
crypto 15% +$1
world 1% $0
other 1% +$2
politics 1% +$283
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 9 -2.8% -12.0% 89% 33% -18.2%
all 28 +16.6% +5.5% 89% 32% +25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.5% 32% +25.4%
10% -4.6% 25% +13.4%
15% -13.8% 18% +2.5%
20% -22.3% 14% -7.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$962) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$278 vs −$101 · ×2.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×22.85 per $1 lost it wins $22.85
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized+$6,648
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses25 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage197d
Avg bet$578
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-0%)
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lee Chul-gyu win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election Jun 07 $58 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 02 $78 $0 +0%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $251 −$249 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Kor May 19 $212 +$39 +18%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner May 14 $173 +$27 +16%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 14 $145 +$40 +27%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 20 $133 +$13 +10%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $130 +$3 +2%
Clippers vs. Bucks Mar 30 $128 +$2 +2%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner Mar 19 $128 $0 +0%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs Mar 02 $5,138 +$2,890 +56%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Mar 01 $2,784 +$2,354 +85%
Celtics vs. Nuggets Feb 26 $985 +$1 +0%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 22 $1,200 +$834 +70%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN Freecs (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 21 $800 +$296 +37%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 3 Winner Feb 18 $1,572 +$81 +5%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 07 $94 +$283 +300%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 5? Feb 07 $972 +$1 +0%
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jan 23 $250 +$82 +33%
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jan 23 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 7? Jan 08 $473 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $37 $0 +0%
Pump.fun all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $43 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 02 $52 $0 +0%
Aster all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $66 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 02 $125 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $156 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $962 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $61 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? BUY No 100¢ $76 1h
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $78 29d
Will Lee Chul-gyu win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election BUY No 100¢ $58 29d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In BUY Weibo Gaming 68¢ $251 32d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Kor BUY Hanwha Life Esports 84¢ $212 37d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 86¢ $173 42d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $145 43d
Suns vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 91¢ $133 66d
76ers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 98¢ $130 79d
Clippers vs. Bucks BUY Clippers 98¢ $128 87d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $128 98d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 64¢ $5,138 115d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 54¢ $2,784 116d
Celtics vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 100¢ $985 119d
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY Team Vitality 59¢ $1,200 123d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN Freecs (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA 73¢ $800 125d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 3 Winner BUY Invictus Gaming 95¢ $1,572 134d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $972 142d
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Oh My God 15¢ $50 153d
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 60¢ $200 153d
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 50¢ $20 153d
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 99¢ $20 153d
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 99¢ $15 153d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 25¢ $94 160d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $473 170d
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $37 178d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $87 178d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $156 184d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $52 184d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.93 · official $136.93 (match) · 61 history records