Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4bc3…cfca crypto 1059 markets active 4h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$49 (-3%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%624W / 435L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day25.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$2
14 days−$21
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 301 -0.8% -10.2% 60% 58% -10.1%
≤30d 718 -3.5% -12.7% 64% 62% -14.0%
≤90d 1059 -4.7% -13.8% 59% 55% -14.5%
all 1059 -4.7% -13.8% 59% 55% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 55% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 37% -22.7%
15% -29.6% 18% -30.1%
20% -36.5% 7% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses624 / 435
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1059 / 1059
History coverage65d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day25.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1059 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.28 · official $27.28 (match) · 2236 history records