Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:14:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4bbf…878c politics 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%2W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% $0
other 29% $0
sports 19% $0
finance 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
all 20 -0.0% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses2 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage108d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $92 $0 +0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $92 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $186 $0 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $92 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 18 $92 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $92 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $92 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $92 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $94 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $94 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 09 $94 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $94 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $94 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $94 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 14 $94 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 12 $94 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 10 $94 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 09 $94 $0 +0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 05 $94 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $92 1h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $92 12h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $92 13d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 14d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $2 14d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $52 14d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 14d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $92 19d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $92 20d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $92 22d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $92 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 99¢ $92 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $92 32d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $92 35d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $92 36d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $92 36d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $92 37d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $92 41d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $92 41d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $94 61d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $94 61d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $94 63d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $94 64d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $94 66d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $94 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $94 70d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $94 71d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $94 77d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $94 77d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $94 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records