Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:42:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4B 0x4bbe…2cf3 finance 83 markets active 3h ago coverage 83d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy finance specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$865,390 (-92%) realized −$741,053 · open −$124,337
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate35%22W / 40L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11,372per market
Trades / day39.9pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$191,037now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$336,498
7 days−$336,498
14 days−$336,502
30 days−$391,690
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 60% −$518,507
world 24% −$311,004
politics 10% +$3,899
other 6% +$8,353
tech 0% −$36
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 18 -67.3% -70.4% 22% 17% -84.2%
≤90d 62 -0.5% -10.0% 35% 26% -75.5%
all 62 -0.5% -10.0% 35% 26% -75.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 26% -75.5%
10% -18.6% 23% -77.8%
15% ← realistic here -26.5% 23% -80.0%
20% -33.7% 18% -81.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$28,743) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +72% → late -73% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
35.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11,999 vs −$32,336 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$191,037
Realized−$741,053
Unrealized−$124,337
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses22 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Open positions45
Markets (closed)62 / 83
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$11,372
Trades / day39.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 92¢ 100¢ $32,952 $35,760 +$2,808 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 90¢ 100¢ $28,575 $31,586 +$3,011 (+11%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 72¢ 88¢ $18,023 $21,918 +$3,895 (+22%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay No 76¢ 84¢ $13,351 $14,843 +$1,491 (+11%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 100¢ $11,445 $12,572 +$1,128 (+10%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? No 95¢ 100¢ $11,492 $12,090 +$599 (+5%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 89¢ 100¢ $9,932 $11,157 +$1,225 (+12%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $9,452 $10,010 +$558 (+6%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 70¢ 76¢ $5,444 $5,872 +$428 (+8%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? No 96¢ 100¢ $5,349 $5,547 +$197 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? No 89¢ 95¢ $3,911 $4,181 +$270 (+7%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 88¢ 100¢ $3,532 $3,986 +$454 (+13%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? No 89¢ 100¢ $3,216 $3,603 +$387 (+12%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 62¢ 74¢ $2,869 $3,417 +$548 (+19%)
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 100¢ $2,004 $2,554 +$549 (+27%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? No 60¢ 100¢ $1,465 $2,422 +$958 (+65%)
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? No 90¢ 100¢ $1,350 $1,494 +$144 (+11%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 84¢ 100¢ $898 $1,065 +$168 (+19%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in June? No 72¢ 99¢ $719 $990 +$270 (+38%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No 81¢ 86¢ $937 $989 +$52 (+6%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 100¢ $705 $820 +$115 (+16%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June? No 72¢ 100¢ $508 $704 +$196 (+39%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 83¢ 92¢ $356 $396 +$41 (+11%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? No 94¢ 100¢ $322 $341 +$19 (+6%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 90¢ 91¢ $328 $331 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Jun 28 $8,012 −$8,012 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Jun 28 $173 −$173 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Jun 28 $150,983 −$151,874 -101%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Jun 28 $7,219 −$3,794 -53%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Jun 28 $4,590 −$4,590 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Jun 28 $121,017 −$137,702 -114%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Jun 28 $28,909 −$28,909 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Jun 28 $721 −$721 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Jun 28 $356 −$356 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Jun 28 $367 −$367 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 14 $306 −$306 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 14 $454 +$302 +67%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 08 $4,796 −$4,796 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 08 $12,097 −$12,096 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 08 $33,094 −$33,517 -101%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $9,612 −$20,580 -214%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 03 $7,197 +$5,564 +77%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 03 $21,292 +$7,760 +36%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 03 $33,074 +$2,478 +8%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 12 $49,900 +$1,519 +3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 12 $51,166 +$2,361 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 05 $5,066 −$5,066 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 05 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027? May 05 $350 −$350 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 05 $11,040 −$11,039 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 05 $30,666 −$210,548 -687%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 05 $9,399 −$9,399 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 04 $78,415 −$134,580 -172%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 04 $8,614 −$8,614 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? May 02 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 01 $6,076 −$6,073 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 01 $10,493 −$10,493 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 01 $1,834 +$4,307 +235%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? May 01 $7,391 +$1,316 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? May 01 $3,477 +$5,536 +159%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 01 $7,647 +$9,418 +123%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? May 01 $3,384 +$17,701 +523%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 01 $29,207 +$35,609 +122%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 01 $670 +$134,903 +20138%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 29 $241 +$119 +49%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Apr 18 $812 −$809 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 16 $7,484 −$7,480 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 16 $71,677 −$105,156 -147%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 16 $889 −$889 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 14 $51,399 −$48,334 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? Apr 14 $9,431 −$9,401 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 13 $5,404 +$2,287 +42%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Apr 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 12 $67,358 −$127,964 -190%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 12 $5,461 +$9,846 +180%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $101 3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $213 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $252 19h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $328 3d
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $29 4d
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $19 4d
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $19 4d
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $298 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $45 10d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in June? BUY No 72¢ $719 12d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $26 13d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $207 13d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $74 13d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $135 13d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $2,192 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,122 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 55¢ $1,790 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 41¢ $68 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $147 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $3 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 41¢ $35 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 41¢ $49 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 41¢ $64 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $3 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 55¢ $0 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $42 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 42¢ $465 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191,037.49 · official $191,037.49 (match) · 3500 history records