Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:05:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4B 0x4bba…340e crypto 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 640d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$416 (-16%) realized −$420 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%25W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$184
14 days−$184
30 days−$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$308
crypto 32% +$11
politics 4% −$16
sports 1% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -87.8% -88.9% 0% 0% -83.3%
≤30d 7 -87.8% -88.9% 0% 0% -83.3%
≤90d 7 -87.8% -88.9% 0% 0% -83.3%
all 57 -18.4% -26.1% 44% 37% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 37% -25.3%
10% -33.2% 28% -32.5%
15% -39.7% 25% -39.0%
20% -45.6% 19% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -82% too few recent
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$18 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

640d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized−$420
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses25 / 32
Open positions4
Markets (closed)57 / 61
History coverage640d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $92 $92 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $42 $50 +$8 (+18%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Belgium? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $48 $44 −$4 (-8%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Belgium? Jun 26 $49 −$7 -14%
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $26 −$26 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $31 −$31 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $31 −$31 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 20 $10 −$2 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 20 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 18 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 18 $41 −$35 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 18 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 18 $25 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 18 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 18 $40 −$9 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 18 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 18 $20 +$12 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 18 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 18 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 18 $30 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 18 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 18 $30 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 18 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 18 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 18 $10 +$12 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 18 $95 +$17 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 18 $30 +$18 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 18 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 18 $10 +$11 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 18 $20 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 18 $40 −$15 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 18 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 18 $30 +$33 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 18 $30 +$43 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 18 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 18 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 18 $7 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 18 $23 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 18 $12 −$12 -99%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $29 −$29 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 25 $492 −$37 -8%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? Nov 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $43 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $52 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $43 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Belgium? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 11h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Belgium? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 11h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Belgium? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Belgium? SELL Yes 3¢ $13 11h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Belgium? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 11h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 6¢ $49 11h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Belgium? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 11h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Belgium? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 11h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Belgium? BUY Yes 3¢ $22 11h
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $16 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $10 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $10 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $8 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $10 98d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $8 98d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.15 · official $187.15 (match) · 185 history records