Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:34:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4B 0x4bb6…4921 crypto 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$94 · open +$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate93%114W / 8L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$46
other 19% −$92
economics 2% −$1
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 62 -1.4% -10.8% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 122 -1.1% -10.5% 93% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 1% -9.8%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$23 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$450
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses114 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)122 / 127
History coverage212d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $319 $319 +$0 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 55¢ 79¢ $58 $83 +$25 (+44%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 33¢ 68¢ $16 $34 +$17 (+105%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 41¢ 76¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+87%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $319 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $319 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $318 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $318 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $317 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $317 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $317 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $317 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $316 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $315 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $315 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $315 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $314 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $314 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $314 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 21 $313 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $313 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $313 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $312 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $312 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $311 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 11 $311 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 10 $310 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 09 $310 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? May 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 08 $310 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? May 06 $310 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 05 $309 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? May 04 $309 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 3? May 03 $309 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $290 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $310 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $310 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26? Apr 27 $310 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $309 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $309 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $308 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $308 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $308 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $307 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $306 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $305 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $303 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $302 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $319 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $319 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $319 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $318 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $318 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $317 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $317 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $3 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $317 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $317 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $316 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $315 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $315 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $315 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $314 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $314 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $314 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $313 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $313 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $313 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $312 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $312 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $311 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $311 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $310 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $310 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $3 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $310 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? BUY No 100¢ $3 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $449.57 · official $449.57 (match) · 265 history records