Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:21:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4bb5…1d5b sports 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$324 (+0%) realized +$419 · open −$95
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate59%77W / 54L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$529per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$628est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$461
14 days−$431
30 days−$633
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$377
other 11% −$350
crypto 1% −$363
world 0% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -20.2% -27.8% 48% 35% -19.2%
≤30d 36 -12.7% -21.0% 53% 36% -17.0%
≤90d 131 -8.5% -17.2% 59% 40% -9.7%
all 131 -8.5% -17.2% 59% 40% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 40% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 31% -18.4%
15% -32.4% 24% -26.3%
20% -39.0% 18% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$524) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$229 vs −$329 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$419
Unrealized−$95
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses77 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$628
Open positions2
Markets (closed)131 / 133
History coverage54d
Avg bet$529
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 57¢ $93 $0 −$93 (-100%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 39¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $541 +$54 +10%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $488 +$246 +50%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $213 −$207 -97%
Valencia vs. Barcelona Jun 18 $65 −$61 -94%
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 18 $91 −$83 -91%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $474 −$363 -77%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $66 −$50 -75%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $94 −$93 -98%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 14 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $549 +$39 +7%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $229 +$320 +140%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $23 +$36 +156%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $60 −$57 -94%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 +$1 +17%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $359 −$338 -94%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 13 $344 +$15 +4%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $299 +$81 +27%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $90 +$185 +206%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 12 $66 +$24 +37%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 12 $94 −$93 -99%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $39 +$10 +26%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $216 +$22 +10%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 11 $100 +$8 +8%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $706 −$694 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire May 31 $422 +$284 +67%
Besiktas vs. Galatasaray May 30 $72 −$71 -98%
Seattle Storm vs. Toronto Tempo May 30 $3 −$2 -47%
Saski Baskonia vs. Unicaja May 29 $75 −$74 -98%
Pallacanestro Brescia vs. Olimpia Milano May 29 $337 −$196 -58%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 29 $116 +$88 +76%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $683 +$32 +5%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings May 29 $474 +$295 +62%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream May 25 $65 +$103 +158%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Real Madrid May 24 $113 +$32 +28%
Toronto Tempo vs. Los Angeles Sparks May 18 $146 −$145 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $161 −$159 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 17 $26 +$1 +4%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $261 +$44 +17%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Atlanta Dream May 17 $38 −$36 -96%
Cedevita Olimpija vs. KK Crvena Zvezda May 12 $398 −$396 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $101 −$87 -86%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $22 +$23 +105%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks May 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $3 $0 +13%
Will Real Oviedo vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? May 10 $2 +$1 +76%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $457 −$455 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $162 +$131 +81%
Dallas Wings vs. Indiana Fever May 09 $124 −$115 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $2 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $94 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 92¢ $300 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 92¢ $200 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $5 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 11¢ $213 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 6h
Valencia vs. Barcelona SELL Barcelona $4 6h
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Barcelona 19¢ $9 6h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano SELL Reyer Venezia $8 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 66¢ $483 7h
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Barcelona 42¢ $16 7h
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Barcelona 34¢ $40 7h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Reyer Venezia 29¢ $8 7h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Reyer Venezia 33¢ $82 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $353 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo $16 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 10¢ $2 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 15¢ $10 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 11¢ $10 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 11¢ $7 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo $16 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 44¢ $105 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo $21 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $121 4d
Joventut vs. Valencia BUY Joventut 50¢ $1 4d
Joventut vs. Valencia BUY Joventut 37¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.08 (match) · 788 history records