Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:25:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4B 0x4bb4…a3d2 weather 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24 (+2%) realized +$17 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%19W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$46
14 days+$21
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 77% +$11
other 14% +$17
world 4% −$11
tech 3% −$18
sports 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -14.9% -23.0% 36% 28% -22.0%
≤30d 53 -10.2% -18.8% 36% 32% -6.9%
≤90d 53 -10.2% -18.8% 36% 32% -6.9%
all 53 -10.2% -18.8% 36% 32% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 32% -6.9%
10% -26.5% 28% -15.8%
15% -33.6% 26% -24.0%
20% -40.1% 26% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$11 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses19 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)53 / 63
History coverage14d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? No 41¢ 77¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+88%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? No 17¢ 19¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+54%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? No 10¢ 11¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? No 5¢ 5¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 25 $35 +$4 +10%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? Jun 25 $17 +$13 +76%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -98%
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian S Jun 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 25 $6 +$1 +20%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -99%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 25 $13 −$13 -98%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? Jun 25 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $10 +$17 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $8 +$10 +117%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $5 −$2 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 23? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $8 +$14 +174%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $7 +$13 +176%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $7 +$18 +250%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $17 −$16 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $41 −$17 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$10 +190%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $26 +$25 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $23 −$2 -7%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $16 −$10 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $43 −$21 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +35%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 16 $12 +$7 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $31 +$52 +168%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $7 −$2 -24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $41 −$26 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 +$59 +220%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $16 −$8 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 +$38 +148%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $63 −$42 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $49 +$58 +117%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $21 −$4 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$26 +169%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? BUY No 5¢ $3 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 91¢ $39 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 92¢ $25 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 77¢ $31 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $7 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY No 17¢ $7 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 10¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 66¢ $7 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY No 41¢ $7 9h
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian S SELL Yes 34¢ $7 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 64¢ $10 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 34¢ $10 12h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 12h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? SELL Yes 97¢ $28 16h
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian S BUY Yes 34¢ $7 38h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 38h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 24? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 38h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? SELL Yes 86¢ $18 38h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 24? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.29 · official $99.30 (match) · 151 history records