Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:42:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4B 0x4bb3…727b crypto 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,155 (-27%) realized −$3,105 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%53W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$759
7 days−$2,416
14 days−$2,416
30 days−$2,416
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% +$931
other 32% −$1,746
crypto 15% −$536
politics 10% −$1,179
culture 4% −$450
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +8.2% -2.1% 45% 43% -46.7%
≤30d 44 +8.2% -2.1% 45% 43% -46.7%
≤90d 44 +8.2% -2.1% 45% 43% -46.7%
all 95 +2.9% -6.9% 56% 47% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 47% -32.1%
10% -15.8% 40% -38.6%
15% -24.0% 38% -44.5%
20% -31.4% 24% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$142 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,105
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses53 / 42
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage146d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 6.5 Corners Over 26¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $511 +$290 +57%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $259 +$114 +44%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $135 +$15 +11%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$120 +776%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $181 +$94 +52%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $141 +$36 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 +$28 +549%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $62 +$43 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $37 +$24 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$21 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $9 +$7 +79%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $499 −$493 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +51%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $522 −$522 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +40%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $8 +$1 +18%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $321 −$253 -79%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $72 −$41 -57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $68 +$4 +6%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $236 +$85 +36%
LoL: Sentinels vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $328 −$328 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $192 −$192 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $148 −$148 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs Jun 18 $147 −$147 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $418 −$418 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 18 $450 −$450 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $65 +$25 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: LYON vs LOUD (BO5) - First Stand Group B Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $96 +$140 +146%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $67 +$261 +388%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales - Game 3 Winner Mar 16 $19 +$8 +43%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 (BO5) - Americas Cup Playoffs Mar 09 $500 +$689 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 08 $393 −$393 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffs Mar 02 $27 +$52 +193%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs Mar 01 $199 +$32 +16%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Feb 28 $344 +$210 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 26¢ $51 57m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $801 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 11¢ $12 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $511 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $373 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $151 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $135 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $135 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $259 8h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $275 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $181 25h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $177 25h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $141 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 28h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 28h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 30h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $62 33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $37 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.10 (match) · 276 history records