Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4bb3…bc62 other 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 225L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$26
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$37
sports 23% −$16
politics 8% −$7
culture 7% −$6
crypto 5% −$3
economics 3% −$3
world 3% −$4
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 235 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 225
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)235 / 236
History coverage127d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $311 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $346 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $107 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $142 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $190 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $178 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $378 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $305 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $347 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $330 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $246 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $417 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $219 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $402 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $871 −$2 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $120 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $165 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $184 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $837 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $57 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $640 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $128 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $787 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $221 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $124 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $194 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $316 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $448 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $165 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $322 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 1h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 2h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $52 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 6h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 8h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 10h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 14h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $52 15h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 20h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 21h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $52 23h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $52 24h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $52 29h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $53 31h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 33h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 35h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 42h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 44h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 45h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 47h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $21 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $22 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.65 · official $51.65 (match) · 1283 history records