Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4bb0…e845 sports 954 markets active 1h ago coverage 314d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$502 (-4%) realized −$494 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate61%574W / 371L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$126est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$455
crypto 11% −$213
other 3% +$66
world 3% +$15
politics 3% +$49
tech 2% +$20
economics 1% +$24
culture 0% −$8
finance 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +13.8% +3.0% 80% 40% +19.4%
≤30d 6 -5.1% -14.2% 67% 33% -33.6%
≤90d 155 +12.8% +2.1% 74% 37% -14.6%
all 945 +2.1% -7.7% 61% 50% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 50% -12.8%
10% -16.5% 41% -21.1%
15% -24.6% 34% -28.7%
20% -32.0% 29% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

314d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$494
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses574 / 371
Est. fees paid−$126
Open positions9
Markets (closed)945 / 954
History coverage314d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 945 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 78¢ 80¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 25¢ 8¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-67%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 15¢ 3¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-78%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 14 $1 $0 -16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $4 $0 +6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $23 +$12 +50%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 06 $1 +$1 +140%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 06 $3 $0 +15%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 06 $3 +$1 +17%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 06 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 01 $1 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 01 $1 $0 +14%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $16 −$6 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 29 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 24 $316 −$82 -26%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 24 $9 −$5 -56%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 24 $161 +$6 +4%
Spread: Nuggets (-1.5) Apr 24 $251 −$96 -38%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Apr 24 $200 −$74 -37%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 24 $124 −$6 -5%
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $90 +$4 +4%
Magic vs. Pistons: 1H Moneyline Apr 23 $32 −$7 -22%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 23 $71 +$12 +16%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 22 $212 +$14 +7%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $100 +$7 +8%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $591 −$591 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $201 −$201 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 22 $132 −$132 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 22 $51 +$9 +17%
Will Fernando Mendoza be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? Apr 22 $94 +$4 +5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 22 $125 −$5 -4%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 22 $183 +$14 +8%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $350 +$60 +17%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $43 −$43 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 21 $48 +$5 +10%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $187 −$2 -1%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 19 $68 +$32 +47%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 18 $116 +$40 +34%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 16 $53 +$4 +8%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 15 $66 +$2 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 15 $75 +$8 +10%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $11 $0 +2%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 15 $263 −$76 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 16h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 38h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $2 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.89 · official $16.89 (match) · 3208 history records