Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:40:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4bae…7bf5 world 43 markets active 10h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 29L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$11
crypto 14% −$1
other 14% $0
politics 10% $0
sports 6% $0
culture 6% $0
economics 2% +$3
finance 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.6% -7.2% 40% 10% -7.6%
≤30d 13 +2.2% -7.5% 46% 8% -7.8%
≤90d 13 +2.2% -7.5% 46% 8% -7.8%
all 43 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 2% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 2% -8.7%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×6.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.25 per $1 lost it wins $5.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage280d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $46 +$9 +20%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $90 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $28 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $49 +$3 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $49 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $129 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $8 $0 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 24 $20 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $190 in September? Sep 19 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $35 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 18 $33 +$3 +9%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 15 $33 $0 -1%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Sep 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Sep 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 12 $7 $0 -6%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Sep 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 10 $2 $0 +9%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 09 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 9h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 9h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 9h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 12h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $18 12h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $45 39h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $45 42h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $20 47h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $14 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $14 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $22 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $35 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $29 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $28 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $5 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $5 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $10 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $31 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $31 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 81¢ $12 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 81¢ $40 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $49 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $10 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $17 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $6 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $37 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $43 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records