Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4B 0x4bad…c62e other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$448 (-44%) realized −$395 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -89% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -90% what you keep after slip
Net edge-90%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$508now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 141d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$253
world 19% −$147
sports 5% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-90.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 5 -89.4% -90.4% 0% 0% -89.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -90.4% 0% -89.5%
10% -91.3% 0% -90.5%
15% -92.2% 0% -91.4%
20% -92.9% 0% -92.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -89% · $-wt -88% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$80 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$508
Realized−$395
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)5 / 12
History coverage141d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $100 $78 −$22 (-22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $60 $64 +$4 (+7%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $51 $9 −$42 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-02-13? Feb 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-02-14? Feb 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 03 $53 −$53 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 03 $99 −$47 -47%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Jan 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 58m
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $53 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $62 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 6d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-02-13? BUY Yes 36¢ $100 125d
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $100 125d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 32¢ $53 133d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 9¢ $52 133d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 17¢ $99 141d
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $100 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $508.45 · official $508.45 (match) · 20 history records