Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4B 0x4bad…0d5b sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$36 (+12%) realized +$43 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$16
other 15% +$58
world 8% −$25
crypto 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +22.5% +10.8% 50% 50% +5.3%
≤30d 16 +22.5% +10.8% 50% 50% +5.3%
≤90d 16 +22.5% +10.8% 50% 50% +5.3%
all 16 +22.5% +10.8% 50% 50% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.8% 50% +5.3%
10% +0.2% 50% -4.8%
15% -9.5% 50% -14.0%
20% -18.4% 44% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$14 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$43
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage4d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 39¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $31 +$20 +63%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$12 +111%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $16 +$14 +91%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $16 −$3 -18%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $26 −$1 -3%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $11 +$11 +104%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$57 +217%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -91%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $21 +$9 +46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +108%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 +$20 +240%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $26 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $31 3h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 85¢ $22 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 37¢ $10 4h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $16 13h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $13 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $16 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 23¢ $26 35h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $26 36h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $26 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 53¢ $25 36h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 67¢ $21 47h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 30¢ $11 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $26 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 11¢ $11 2d
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $21 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.40 · official $18.40 (match) · 27 history records