Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4B 0x4bab…15e7 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$1,191 (+24%) realized +$1,179 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%21W / 17L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$590now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$353
7 days+$1,375
14 days+$1,375
30 days+$1,439
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$466
sports 29% +$1,143
world 15% −$253
crypto 4% −$179
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +91.9% +73.6% 65% 65% +34.4%
≤30d 27 +83.5% +66.0% 63% 63% +29.0%
≤90d 29 +74.4% +57.8% 62% 59% +16.3%
all 38 +45.6% +31.7% 55% 53% +14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.7% 53% +14.1%
10% +19.1% 50% +3.2%
15% +7.6% 47% -6.8%
20% -3.0% 37% -15.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +81% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$70 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$590
Realized+$1,179
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses21 / 17
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions7
Markets (closed)38 / 45
History coverage96d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 86¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $99 +$43 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $214 +$107 +50%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$63 +307%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$19 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $369 +$146 +40%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$66 +325%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$59 +577%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $99 +$225 +226%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $48 −$46 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $182 −$179 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $598 +$140 +23%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$57 +57%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $69 +$414 +596%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $130 −$128 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $84 +$210 +250%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $163 +$281 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $98 +$43 +44%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 31 $51 +$116 +226%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $98 −$4 -4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
DeepSeek V4 released by May 15? May 30 $297 +$52 +18%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 15 $275 −$275 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 12 $500 +$22 +4%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 16 $50 +$25 +50%
Will Mercedes double podium at the 2026 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 16 $60 +$40 +67%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will George Russell achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the Mar 14 $71 +$40 +56%
Will Charles Leclerc achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the Mar 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ferrari double podium at the 2026 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Pri Mar 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Pr Mar 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $49 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 20h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $99 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $214 20h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $369 25h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 36h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 36h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 44h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 44h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 44h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $48 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $99 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $182 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $598 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $130 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $69 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $84 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $98 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $163 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $589.59 · official $589.63 (match) · 68 history records