Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:45:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4B 0x4ba8…f50b sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$350 (+9%) realized +$441 · open −$91
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate68%21W / 10L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$163
7 days+$297
14 days+$445
30 days+$445
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$91
sports 37% +$173
crypto 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +9.4% -1.0% 90% 70% +0.3%
≤30d 11 +13.3% +2.5% 91% 73% +3.8%
≤90d 30 -6.1% -15.0% 67% 53% -1.0%
all 31 -5.8% -14.8% 68% 52% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 52% -1.1%
10% -22.9% 32% -10.6%
15% -30.4% 16% -19.2%
20% -37.2% 10% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$28 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.29 per $1 lost it wins $2.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$441
Unrealized−$91
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses21 / 10
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage152d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 39¢ 14¢ $150 $55 −$95 (-63%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $801 +$24 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $602 +$91 +15%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $100 +$13 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $402 +$68 +17%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$82 -82%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $301 +$59 +19%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $131 +$62 +48%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $283 +$149 +52%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $50 −$34 -68%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 22 $30 −$13 -42%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 20 $80 +$3 +4%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 19 $65 +$19 +29%
Cavaliers vs. Hawks Apr 18 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Girona FC end in a draw? Apr 10 $32 +$17 +52%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $70 −$44 -63%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 06 $60 +$11 +19%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $60 +$26 +43%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Apr 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 04 $40 +$12 +30%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09? Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Warriors Apr 02 $70 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 31 $1 +$1 +133%
76ers vs. Cavaliers Mar 31 $80 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 19? Mar 09 $80 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 55m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $825 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 97¢ $300 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 26h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 34h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $470 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $201 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 17¢ $18 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $201 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $360 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $193 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $104 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 94¢ $80 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 84¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.38 · official $113.22 · 107 history records