Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:14:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4ba6…4f07 sports 173 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%26W / 146L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$11
sports 25% −$8
other 23% −$7
crypto 10% −$2
economics 5% $0
culture 5% −$1
world 4% −$2
finance 3% −$7
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 55 -0.2% -9.7% 18% 0% -9.6%
all 172 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses26 / 146
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)172 / 173
History coverage166d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $99 $0 +0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $43 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $98 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 19 $96 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $214 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $117 $0 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $111 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $223 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 17 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $418 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 16 $436 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 15 $59 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $340 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $207 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 14 $156 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $266 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 13 $61 $0 +1%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 12 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $52 −$4 -8%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $502 +$8 +2%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 11 $203 −$2 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $199 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $219 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $63 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 08 $50 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $203 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 08 $209 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $334 $0 -0%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 06 $341 −$1 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 02 $67 −$1 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 31 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 31 $195 $0 -0%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 31 $39 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 31 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 29 $412 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $38 1h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $41 12d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $41 12d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $42 19d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 20d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $43 27d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $43 27d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $52 39d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $52 39d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $49 64d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $49 65d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $57 65d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $11 65d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 65d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 65d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $58 65d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $58 65d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? SELL No 98¢ $41 65d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 98¢ $42 66d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 93¢ $54 66d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 92¢ $54 66d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $44 66d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $44 66d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $55 66d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $55 66d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $44 66d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 67d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $55 67d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $55 67d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $46 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.12 · official $38.12 (match) · 690 history records