Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:04:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4ba5…967f other 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$93 (-6%) realized −$411 · open +$318
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%14W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$618now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$281
sports 19% −$99
crypto 1% −$12
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-36.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -29.7% -36.4% 26% 26% -24.3%
≤30d 53 -29.7% -36.4% 26% 26% -24.3%
≤90d 53 -29.7% -36.4% 26% 26% -24.3%
all 53 -29.7% -36.4% 26% 26% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.4% 26% -24.3%
10% -42.5% 25% -31.6%
15% -48.1% 21% -38.2%
20% -53.2% 21% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$12 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$618
Realized−$411
Unrealized+$318
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses14 / 39
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage4d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 49¢ 100¢ $300 $618 +$318 (+106%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $69 −$63 -91%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $10 +$1 +14%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $183 +$183 +100%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$2 -48%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $15 −$9 -60%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $357 −$76 -21%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $51 −$24 -48%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $11 +$19 +165%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $5 +$26 +510%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$8 -82%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 26 $17 −$12 -71%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$9 -87%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $15 +$12 +78%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $1 +$2 +166%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $32 −$31 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$7 +64%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$1 -9%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $10 −$8 -75%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $68 −$65 -95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$26 +510%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +93%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 11m
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $69 30m
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 42m
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 22¢ $13 42m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 49¢ $173 22h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 19¢ $6 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 36¢ $102 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 34¢ $269 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 31¢ $255 22h
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL England 23¢ $25 23h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 23h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 43¢ $10 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 46¢ $15 24h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $10 24h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 45¢ $51 24h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 25h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 53¢ $10 25h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 47h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) SELL Senegal 99¢ $16 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $617.53 · official $617.53 (match) · 85 history records