Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:47:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4B 0x4ba4…4d53 crypto 559 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,052 (+0%) realized +$612 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate91%509W / 50L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$465per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$273
14 days+$42
30 days+$671
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$622
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -4.8% -13.8% 91% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 180 -3.1% -12.3% 92% 1% -8.9%
≤90d 559 -1.2% -10.6% 91% 2% -9.2%
all 559 -1.2% -10.6% 91% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 2% -9.2%
10% -19.2% 2% -17.9%
15% -27.0% 1% -25.8%
20% -34.1% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$601) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$89 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$612
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses509 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)559 / 559
History coverage62d
Avg bet$465
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 559 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $600 $0 −$600 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $600 $0 −$600 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $601 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $601 +$17 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $601 +$17 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $601 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $600 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $226 +$2 +1%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $601 +$16 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $602 +$21 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 10 $311 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 10 $600 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $600 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 10 $601 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 09 $600 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 09 $601 +$17 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 09 $601 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 09 $600 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 09 $601 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 09 $600 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 09 $600 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 09 $360 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 09 $601 +$16 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 09 $601 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 08 $601 +$15 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 08 $600 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 08 $601 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 08 $601 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 08 $601 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 08 $600 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 08 $459 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 08 $601 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 08 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 08 $601 +$17 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 05 $600 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 05 $601 +$17 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 05 $601 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 05 $602 +$21 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 05 $601 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 05 $600 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 05 $601 +$18 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 05 $601 +$15 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 05 $601 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 05 $601 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 05 $601 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 04 $600 −$12 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 04 $601 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 04 $601 +$17 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $601 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $601 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $601 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $601 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $600 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $226 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $601 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $602 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $311 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $600 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $600 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $601 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $600 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $601 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $601 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $600 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $601 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $600 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $600 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $360 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $601 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $601 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $601 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $600 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $601 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $601 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1235 history records