Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4B 0x4ba4…8a89 sports 540 markets active 19h ago coverage 183d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 183d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,678 (+4%) realized +$14,770 · open −$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%248W / 323L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$674per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$7,510now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 183d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$19,851
other 29% −$7,223
world 12% +$127
economics 10% +$4,168
politics 6% −$1,950
finance 2% +$2,213
tech 0% −$149
crypto 0% −$326
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -62.3% -65.9% 12% 7% -79.7%
≤30d 70 -59.9% -63.8% 13% 9% -78.3%
≤90d 79 -48.7% -53.5% 19% 15% -40.6%
all 571 -12.4% -20.7% 43% 36% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 36% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 32% -25.3%
15% -35.3% 30% -32.5%
20% -41.6% 28% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$690) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$479 vs −$472 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$7,510
Realized+$14,770
Unrealized−$92
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses248 / 323
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions28
Markets (closed)571 / 540
History coverage183d ⚠
Avg bet$674
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 571 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,960 $1,961 +$1 (+0%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? No 63¢ 95¢ $653 $997 +$344 (+53%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027? No 91¢ 97¢ $911 $968 +$57 (+6%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? No 90¢ 96¢ $866 $922 +$56 (+6%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027? No 91¢ 95¢ $494 $519 +$25 (+5%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? No 97¢ 98¢ $485 $489 +$4 (+1%)
ECB rate cut in 2026? No 48¢ 82¢ $239 $412 +$173 (+72%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $164 $206 +$42 (+26%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $172 $181 +$9 (+5%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 20¢ 7¢ $452 $152 −$301 (-66%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $114 $141 +$27 (+24%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 80¢ 88¢ $111 $121 +$10 (+9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $90 $66 −$24 (-26%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027? No 92¢ 96¢ $55 $57 +$2 (+4%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 96¢ 27¢ $191 $53 −$138 (-72%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $41 $45 +$3 (+8%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 75¢ 84¢ $38 $42 +$5 (+13%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? No 18¢ 12¢ $54 $38 −$16 (-31%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 2.0% before 2027? No 85¢ 92¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+8%)
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%? Yes 74¢ 46¢ $37 $23 −$14 (-37%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $66 $21 −$45 (-68%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $19 $11 −$9 (-46%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $257 $10 −$247 (-96%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 72¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 299 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Devils vs. Bruins Jun 15 $460 −$460 -100%
Commanders vs. Vikings Jun 15 $964 −$964 -100%
Bengals vs. Bills Jun 15 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2025-12-11? Jun 15 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Getafe win on 2025-12-06? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09? Jun 15 $245 −$245 -100%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 15 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Valencia win on 2025-12-07? Jun 15 $288 −$288 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-09? Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 4? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb Jun 15 $370 −$370 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Jun 15 $108 −$108 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 3? Jun 15 $19 +$259 +1338%
Avalanche vs. Flyers Jun 15 $246 −$246 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-26? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2025-12-13? Jun 15 $173 −$173 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Capitals Jun 15 $147 −$147 -100%
Lakers vs. Raptors Jun 15 $142 −$142 -100%
Colts vs. Chiefs Jun 15 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-10? Jun 15 $635 −$567 -89%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-30? Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 15 $225 −$225 -100%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in December? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2025-12-07? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Jun 15 $232 −$232 -100%
Will Pisa SC vs. Parma Calcio 1913 end in a draw? Jun 15 $96 −$96 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Asplund vs. Sharaf (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $160 −$155 -97%
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5 Jun 15 $185 −$185 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Passion UA (BO3) Jun 15 $266 −$266 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-12-07? Jun 15 $486 −$486 -100%
Texans vs. Chiefs Jun 15 $195 −$195 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-3.5) Jun 15 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Valencia win on 2025-12-01? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5 Jun 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2025-12-11? Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Trump say "Hanukkah" this week? (December 1 - 7) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will US GDP growth in 2025 be between 1.5% and 2.0%? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 3? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 2? Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) Jun 15 $235 −$235 -100%
Will Real Betis vs. Barcelona end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 −$15 -108%
LAR vs. Panthers Jun 15 $162 −$162 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-08? Jun 15 $790 −$790 -100%
Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-23? Jun 15 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in December? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-13? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-12-09? Jun 15 $68 +$112 +167%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY No 97¢ $131 18h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY No 97¢ $354 19h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 18¢ $36 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 18¢ $18 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $35 23h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 23h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 23h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $28 23h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 23h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 23h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 23h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $20 24h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $23 24h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,510.23 · official $7,510.26 (match) · 3500 history records