Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:51:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4B 0x4b9f…3680 sports 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,012 (-12%) realized −$3,546 · open −$466
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%25W / 29L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$606per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$140est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$655now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days−$47
14 days−$73
30 days−$453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$4,213
sports 33% +$520
politics 2% +$12
crypto 1% −$71
world 1% −$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.1% -12.3% 57% 57% -11.9%
≤30d 11 -18.5% -26.3% 45% 45% -25.3%
≤90d 43 -13.5% -21.7% 47% 47% -11.2%
all 54 -9.2% -17.9% 46% 41% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 41% -19.1%
10% -25.7% 35% -26.8%
15% -32.9% 26% -33.9%
20% -39.5% 20% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$540) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$223 vs −$309 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$655
Realized−$3,546
Unrealized−$466
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses25 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$140
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage253d
Avg bet$606
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 59¢ 34¢ $1,121 $655 −$466 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $262 +$59 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $509 −$200 -39%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $101 +$84 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $204 +$85 +42%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $59 −$36 -62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $505 −$248 -49%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $490 +$210 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $254 −$134 -53%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $152 +$108 +71%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? May 30 $117 −$115 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $270 −$265 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $231 −$230 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 16 $432 +$168 +39%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 15 $573 −$500 -87%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $253 +$88 +35%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $169 +$20 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 13 $285 +$215 +75%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $354 −$350 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $101 +$13 +13%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $357 +$213 +60%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 11 $50 −$30 -60%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $202 −$186 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 06 $26 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 05 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 05 $26 −$14 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 05 $26 +$34 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 05 $26 +$14 +55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 04 $405 +$247 +61%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $1,052 +$243 +23%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 30 $1,533 −$441 -29%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 29 $1,073 +$228 +21%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 24 $500 −$201 -40%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Apr 19 $100 +$82 +82%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 3 Winner Apr 19 $500 +$115 +23%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $1,725 +$558 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $520 −$283 -54%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $192 −$106 -55%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Natio Apr 02 $120 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 01 $610 +$390 +64%
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 31 $452 −$44 -10%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 24 $580 −$1 -0%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 07 $676 +$1,924 +285%
Over $100M committed to the Solomon public sale? Feb 11 $272 −$143 -52%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 29 $592 −$314 -53%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 23 $540 −$210 -39%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 18? Dec 19 $578 +$12 +2%
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? Dec 06 $204 −$54 -27%
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes? Nov 25 $1,825 +$169 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 69¢ $321 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $262 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $203 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 15¢ $117 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 32¢ $102 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 41¢ $204 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $185 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 54¢ $101 4d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $22 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $102 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 20¢ $61 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $102 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 21¢ $76 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 50¢ $181 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $505 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 70¢ $490 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 11¢ $22 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 49¢ $102 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 21¢ $42 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 58¢ $56 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $51 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $102 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 97¢ $260 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 56¢ $152 8d
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $117 20d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $117 20d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $153 20d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 33d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 33d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $655.31 · official $655.50 (match) · 250 history records