Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:32:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b9e…ab3f crypto 471 markets active 1h ago coverage 750d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$151 (-2%) realized −$151 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate29%136W / 333L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$153
other 9% +$1
politics 1% $0
sports 1% −$2
tech 0% $0
world 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 48 -0.6% -10.0% 21% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 148 -0.3% -9.8% 31% 1% -9.7%
all 469 -0.8% -10.2% 29% 1% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 1% -11.5%
10% -18.8% 0% -19.9%
15% -26.7% 0% -27.7%
20% -33.9% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

750d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$151
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses136 / 333
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)469 / 471
History coverage750d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 469 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? Jun 26 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 25 $89 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 24 $90 $0 -0%
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Jun 24 $1 $0 -2%
Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Jun 24 $1 $0 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 24 $1 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 24 $1 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 24 $1 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in June? Jun 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in June? Jun 23 $90 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in June? Jun 20 $90 −$1 -1%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? Jun 19 $90 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? Jun 18 $90 $0 -0%
Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will Tyreek Hill play for the Buffalo Bills next? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tyreek Hill play for the Las Vegas Raiders next? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? Jun 16 $90 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? Jun 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 13 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 12 $90 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? Jun 11 $89 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Scott McTominay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2 $0 -7%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Jun 09 $90 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 07 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 06 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 04 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Rob Font next? Jun 03 $1 $0 -2%
Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Ricky Simón next? Jun 03 $1 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 -2%
Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Alexandre Pantoja next? Jun 03 $1 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? Jun 03 $2 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? Jun 01 $85 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +3%
Will Chainlink reach $14 in May? May 30 $43 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 29 $90 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? May 28 $20 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? May 28 $90 $0 +0%
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2 $0 -1%
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 59m
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $90 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL No 99¢ $89 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $20 27h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY No 100¢ $90 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $90 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $89 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $89 2d
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL No 98¢ $1 2d
Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL No 98¢ $1 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in June? SELL No 100¢ $9 2d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in June? SELL No 100¢ $6 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $90 2d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in June? SELL No 100¢ $90 2d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in June? BUY No 99¢ $15 5d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $90 6d
Will XRP reach $2.60 in June? SELL No 99¢ $89 6d
Will XRP reach $2.60 in June? BUY No 100¢ $90 7d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? SELL No 100¢ $90 7d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $85 8d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $4 8d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 99¢ $90 8d
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $1 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.58 · official $109.58 (match) · 998 history records